LNG Canada’s True Price: 2.2 Billion Tons Of CO₂e Over 50 Years

LNG Canada, the huge liquefied pure gasoline facility at Kitimat, British Columbia, is on the verge of ramping into full operation. Its commissioning marks a pivotal second for Canada’s vitality and local weather coverage. Promoted as a cleaner various to coal and a mannequin of low-emissions LNG infrastructure, the challenge can also be emblematic of a world development: locking in many years of fossil gasoline infrastructure at a time when net-zero ambitions demand pressing emissions reductions.

In a earlier evaluation of Woodside’s North West Shelf extension in Australia, I laid out the vitality inefficiencies and emissions flows embedded in a contemporary LNG provide chain. With LNG Canada now coming into full manufacturing, it’s time to use that very same lens to a Canadian challenge constructed with larger effectivity in thoughts however nonetheless burdened by the structural realities of long-distance gasoline supply.

LNG Canada is a three way partnership led by Shell, with companions together with Petronas, Mitsubishi, PetroChina, and KOGAS. The primary part of the challenge is designed to export 14 million tons of LNG yearly, fed by roughly 2 billion cubic toes per day of pure gasoline extracted from British Columbia’s Montney Formation. The Coastal GasLink pipeline delivers this gasoline over 670 kilometers to the Kitimat web site, the place it’s liquefied and loaded onto LNG carriers certain primarily for Asian markets.

The challenge’s engineering does incorporate design components to cut back emissions. A portion of the liquefaction vitality demand is met by BC Hydro’s grid, powered by hydroelectricity. Excessive-efficiency aeroderivative gasoline generators additional enhance the vitality profile in comparison with legacy amenities. The LNG carriers are anticipated to finish shorter Pacific crossings to Japan, South Korea, and China than vessels departing from the US Gulf Coast, slicing transit occasions and emissions.

Even with these benefits, the entire vitality and emissions footprints are vital. From extraction to combustion on the level of electrical energy technology, LNG Canada’s product follows the identical thermodynamic constraints that govern all LNG chains.

A full-chain Sankey reveals 853 petajoules of vitality coming into the pipeline from the wellhead. Of that, 42.7 petajoules are misplaced throughout transmission and compression. On the LNG plant, 56.7 petajoules are consumed, principally by way of gasoline gasoline for liquefaction, leaving 753.6 petajoules to be loaded onto ships. Marine transport leads to the lack of one other 15.1 petajoules. The regasification course of at vacation spot terminals consumes a further 7.4 petajoules.

The remaining 731.1 petajoules are delivered to energy crops, the place the ultimate and most vital losses happen. Assuming half the gasoline is burned in high-efficiency combined-cycle gasoline generators and the opposite half in lower-efficiency peaker generators, solely 40% of the vitality makes it to the electrical energy grid. That leaves 438.7 petajoules as rejected warmth and simply 292.4 petajoules as delivered electrical vitality. In complete, round 66% of the preliminary vitality content material is misplaced throughout the availability chain.

Alongside these vitality losses are greenhouse gasoline emissions at each step. On the wellhead, roughly 1.5 million tons of CO2 are emitted yearly from combustion throughout drilling, separation, and subject operations. Methane leakage within the upstream part, regardless of ongoing regulatory efforts to cut back it, is estimated at round 2.0 million tons CO2e per 12 months. Pipeline operations add one other 0.6 million tons of CO2 and 0.4 million tons CO2e from methane leaks. The liquefaction facility, whereas comparatively environment friendly, nonetheless emits 2.0 million tons of CO2 yearly and a small however measurable 0.1 million tons of methane CO2e from flaring, venting, and gear leaks. Ship transport provides one other 1.0 million tons of CO2 and 0.1 million tons CO2e in methane slip from ship engines. Regasification terminals contribute 0.3 million tons of CO2, with methane leakage approaching zero underneath regular operation.

The biggest emissions happen on the level of use: gas-fired energy crops consuming the regasified product emit an estimated 37.8 million tons of CO2 per 12 months, plus one other 0.2 million tons of CO2e from unburned methane in exhaust or minor leakage.

This determine rivals the emissions from whole sectors of the Canadian financial system. British Columbia’s complete greenhouse gasoline emissions in 2021 had been about 61 million tons, which means LNG Canada alone would account for almost three-quarters of the province’s present emissions profile. Nationally, Canada’s whole transportation sector emitted roughly 159 million tons of CO₂e in 2021, whereas the oil and gasoline sector emitted about 179 million tons. LNG Canada’s output would characterize almost 30% of both sector by itself. Framed this fashion, a single export-oriented facility meant to serve international energy grids would add a carbon footprint akin to Canada’s largest industrial classes.

Taken collectively, the annual greenhouse gasoline emissions throughout the LNG Canada provide chain complete roughly 46 million tons of CO2e. This contains each CO2 from combustion and CH4 from fugitive emissions, transformed to CO2e utilizing a 100-year world warming potential. Whereas LNG Canada’s liquefaction plant is among the many best globally, the dimensions of its operations ensures a considerable contribution to atmospheric carbon. Over a projected 40-year operational lifespan, this provide chain would emit about 1,800 million tons of CO2e. If the power operates for 50 years, that climbs to roughly 2,250 million tons. These are conservative estimates, not together with potential expansions or further trains.

Supporters of LNG Canada argue that displacing coal in Asia with Canadian LNG can yield internet local weather advantages. That is believable in jurisdictions nonetheless reliant on coal-fired technology, the place fashionable gasoline generators can reduce emissions per megawatt-hour by 50 to 60% if methane leakage is properly managed. Nevertheless, the substitution impact is just not assured, particularly in markets the place renewables at the moment are outcompeting each coal and gasoline on price. Furthermore, energy sector decarbonization trajectories in international locations like Japan and South Korea more and more contain renewables, storage, and grid integration quite than long-term gasoline dependence. LNG Canada’s long-term contracts, many signed for 13 to fifteen years, point out that consumers view the product as a strategic hedge.

When in comparison with Australia’s resolution to increase the Woodside North West Shelf LNG facility to 2070, the parallels are clear. Each initiatives characterize long-term commitments to fossil gasoline infrastructure with emissions footprints akin to main nationwide sectors. British Columbia’s personal emissions goal is undercut by LNG Canada’s presence. At full capability, the power would be the single largest level supply of emissions within the province, contributing considerably to BC’s 2030 and 2040 carbon budgets even when the emissions of ships, gasification and electrical technology are ignored. Regardless of partial electrification and course of effectivity, the sheer quantity of gasoline processed and combusted ensures that the challenge’s local weather influence stays excessive.

The silver lining is that with each India and China having decreased each coal and gasoline technology this 12 months, the probability of any extra contracts after the 13-15 12 months mark are diminishing quickly. The pipeline and Kitimat usually tend to be stranded property with decomissioning prices taken from the general public purse, identical to the Trans Mountain Pipeline. I believe I ought to look intently on the economics of the beast subsequent, to see if Canadians are subsidizing LNG exports as closely as they’re subsidizing Alberta’s crude exports. As I famous just lately, they’re seeing about $3 billion a 12 months in unpaid pipeline prices that Canada’s taxpayers are protecting.

Power effectivity helps, however scale issues extra. LNG Canada is proof that even best-in-class LNG operations embed lots of of tens of millions of tons of emissions into the worldwide system over their lifetime. Framing the challenge as a cleaner bridge gasoline obscures the central actuality: it’s a large industrial complicated devoted to extracting, liquefying, and exporting fossil fuels for combustion. Whereas cleaner than coal, it isn’t clear. Its existence will form emissions trajectories and coverage debates for many years.