Mary Meeker’s AI Playbook, Gold’s Rise, and Earnings Watch

Analyst Weekly, June 2, 2025

From Web to Intelligence: Mary Meeker’s AI Playbook for the Subsequent Decade

Mary Meeker, lengthy dubbed the “Queen of the Web,” has returned to long-form with the AI Developments Report 2025, her first main deep-dive since pausing the Web Developments Report in 2019.

Over twenty years, she constantly recognized key inflections: the explosion of web customers (1996), on-line adverts overtaking print (2000), and cell’s eventual dominance (2008). At Kleiner Perkins and later BOND Capital, she backed lots of tech’s iconic names- Fb, Spotify, Twitter, Sq., Snap.

AI is shaping as much as be some of the capital-intensive and transformational tech shifts because the web. The report highlights that Massive Tech has already spent over $200B on AI infrastructure in 2024 alone, with NVIDIA rising because the standout winner, now accounting for 25% of worldwide information middle CapEx.

Crucially, whereas coaching AI fashions stays pricey (usually $100M+), the fee to use them (known as inference) has dropped ~99.7% in two years. That’s fueling a surge in developer and enterprise adoption. Microsoft’s AI income hit $13B; OpenAI crossed $3.7B; Anthropic and others are seeing comparable development.

Funding Takeaway:

This setup has opened up funding alternatives throughout three fronts: (1) infrastructure suppliers (NVIDIA, Oracle, CoreWeave), (2) enterprise software program embedding AI into workflows (Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe), and (3) specialised AI-first verticals in healthcare, legislation, and industrials (e.g., Abridge, Harvey, Anduril). In the meantime, China’s open-source LLMs are quickly narrowing the efficiency hole, elevating geopolitical and aggressive concerns.

The report underscores a historic platform shift, likened to cell or cloud, with the “interface layer” transferring from apps to brokers. The following decade of productiveness (and returns) could come from whoever owns that layer. Buyers ought to place throughout each enablers (infrastructure, chips, fashions) and integrators (software program, automation).

Earnings Watch: Decrease Bar, Greater Shock Potential

Wall Road is dialing again full-year S&P 500 revenue forecasts- now anticipating 7% EPS development in 2025. That’s down barely, however nonetheless sturdy vs. the two.3% common earlier than previous recessions. Q1 earnings already confirmed resilience: income jumped 13%, with gross sales up 5%. A lot of the cuts are centered on Q2, the place tariff-driven price will increase and demand headwinds are anticipated to hit hardest.

However right here’s the twist: decrease expectations might set the stage for upside surprises. If firms handle provide chain shifts, or maintain pricing energy, Q2 might beat the (now-lowered) bar- particularly for industrials and shopper discretionary.

Volatility Watch: Fragile Calm

Proper now, markets appear to be on stable footing. Inner momentum seems to be wholesome, with greater than half of S&P 500 shares simply hit new 20-day highs, a sign that has traditionally pointed to sturdy 6-month returns. Industrials are main the way in which, and even the important thing Discretionary vs. Staples ratio, a gauge of danger urge for food, has turned increased after a short dip.

That stated, there are a number of developments on the radar that would stir volatility within the coming weeks:

Liquidity squeeze: Treasury money balances (TGA) start draining on June 15.
Fiscal stress: Web curiosity prices now make up 18% of US tax income.
Tariff cliff: The present pause on reciprocal tariffs expires July 9 and we could not have courtroom readability by then (see under). The authorized appeals course of is transferring slowly, making it tougher for the US to finalize new commerce offers in time.

Tariff Drama: Courtroom Says No, Appeals Say Maintain Up

A US courtroom dominated US tariffs are unlawful and gave a 10-day rollback deadline – however plot twist: an appeals courtroom hit pause. So for now, tariffs keep. The authorized battle might stretch into summer time, perhaps even to the Supreme Courtroom.

Why it issues: The present truce on reciprocal tariffs ends July 9, and we’d not have authorized readability by then. That’s making it tougher for the US to ink new commerce offers, giving different nations a cause to play hardball.
Massive image: Authorized uncertainty = market volatility. If international companions assume the US is shedding grip on enforcement, they might retaliate and markets don’t love uncertainty. Regulate volatility as this unfolds.
Now Everybody’s Enjoying Hardball: The EU’s stalling on concessions, presumably utilizing US authorized uncertainty as leverage. Trump tossed out a 50% tariff risk final week, however Brussels didn’t flinch. Subsequent transfer? The G7 Summit (mid-June) can be key to look at for progress, particularly with Japan.
In the meantime, China’s dragging its ft on a Might 12 tariff deal to restart rare-earth exports (yep, we had flagged it). The US hit again with tighter export controls.
The vibe: If the US seems to be unsure, others will take benefit. It’s shaping as much as be a tense summer time for commerce.

Gold’s Rise Displays Structural Shifts in Reserve Administration

The yellow steel stays elevated close to document highs. Gold is hovering round $3,300/oz after a 26% surge this yr, underpinned by its safe-haven attraction. We expect that gold’s ascent previous $3,300 will not be the product of speculative extra however the results of a sustained shift in how international establishments handle reserve belongings. Central banks have been the dominant patrons over the previous two years, signaling a structural relatively than cyclical revaluation.

This development accelerated after 2022, when geopolitical occasions highlighted the dangers of overconcentration in a single reserve asset class. In response, a rising variety of nations, significantly in Asia and the Center East, started diversifying away from sovereign debt holdings, notably US Treasuries. With no credible various reserve foreign money, many have elevated allocations to gold- a impartial, liquid, and traditionally acknowledged retailer of worth.

Investor positioning, against this, has remained conservative. Gold presently accounts for roughly 1% of worldwide funding portfolios. That determine is way under historic ranges: throughout the Bretton Woods period, gold and associated belongings made up 50–60% of institutional holdings. Whereas a return to these ranges is neither probably nor fascinating in a contemporary monetary system, even a modest reallocation to three–5% would indicate important incremental demand.

The latest uptick in ETF inflows and fund publicity suggests that non-public traders are starting to observe central banks into the commerce.

Silver, in the meantime, has lagged gold however could current uneven upside. Whereas central banks don’t maintain silver, its twin position as a financial steel and a essential industrial enter, significantly in photo voltaic, batteries, and semiconductors, makes it more and more related in a world financial system transitioning towards electrification.

For traders, a balanced strategy stays prudent: 75–80% publicity to bodily gold or gold ETFs for stability, and 20–25% to high-quality miners for upside potential. The latter stay deeply discounted relative to bullion however carry materially increased volatility.

Investor Takeaway: We see a compelling case for rising long-term publicity to gold. Current value motion has created a extra enticing entry level and additional alternatives could emerge. Over the long-term, we consider gold stays a strategic asset: a core holding amid accelerating de-globalization, and a transition asset throughout a interval marked by coverage uncertainty and central financial institution stability sheet shifts.

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