The variety of UK residential property transactions in September 2025 reached 95,980, up 0.4% year-on-year, based on the newest HMRC knowledge.
In distinction, UK non-residential transactions for a similar interval totalled 9,910, down 4% in contrast with a 12 months in the past and barely beneath August ranges.
The figures come forward of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ 26 November Funds, the place the Treasury is reportedly contemplating a variety of property tax measures to assist tackle an estimated £22 billion shortfall in public funds.
Proposals into account embody a brand new tax on the sale of properties valued over £500,000 and a neighborhood annual property levy to switch council tax over an unspecified phased interval. Landlords is also affected by a plan to use Nationwide Insurance coverage contributions to rental revenue, which the Treasury estimates might increase £2bn.
Trade response:
Neil Knight, divisional director at Spicerhaart Half Trade and Group Purchasers: “Whereas non-seasonally adjusted figures are up on the earlier 12 months, a dip in month-to-month residential transactions will definitely give many a fright at the moment. Regardless of the very best efforts of lenders and builders, there will likely be patrons and sellers nonetheless firmly in a holding sample forward of the upcoming Funds, awaiting additional readability on financial coverage. Nonetheless, this doesn’t essentially sign a scarcity of underlying demand. As an alternative, a very good variety of patrons have been quietly getting on with the job of shopping for and shifting – buoyed by incentives and help supplied by lenders and builders within the new construct house.
“As we edge nearer to the Funds and past, that is one thing that should proceed in earnest. We have now been inspired by growing uptake amongst builders of each half alternate and assisted transfer schemes. If households budgets do get squeezed post-Funds, these pathways will show completely very important in minimising the stress and expense of a home transfer, serving to to grease the wheels and maintain transactions shifting in a constructive path.”
Tom Invoice, head of UK residential analysis at Knight Frank: “Housing market exercise has been flat in current months, with demand supported by steady and broadly reasonably priced mortgage charges. Nonetheless, a two-speed market has developed because the Funds approaches, with patrons and sellers in higher-value markets hesitating as a result of uncertainty round property taxes. The danger is that momentum is steadily sapped from the broader marker after 26 November as sentiment weakens and the tax panorama deteriorates.”
Richard Donnell, government director at Zoopla:“Housing transaction are 4 per cent increased reflecting the regular rebound in purchaser demand and gross sales agreed over the past 12 months.The housing market has the largest pipeline of gross sales for 4 years with 350,000 properties working their solution to completion.
“We count on transactions to begin to plateau now they’re again in keeping with the long term common of 1.2m gross sales a 12 months.
“Funds uncertainty is beginning to hit new gross sales agreed over £500,000 which can restrict additional development in gross sales over 2026 until the Chancellor makes a daring transfer reminiscent of slicing stamp responsibility within the Funds which might increase gross sales.”
Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops: “The transaction outcomes are indicative of a housing market that has slowed within the run as much as the finances, however stays essentially robust pushed by way of life purchases. Gross sales agreed are up 1% from the month earlier, a modest enhance however one which signifies market stability. On the high finish, many £2 million-plus movers stay in a holding sample forward of any attainable tax reforms, with calculators in hand to see if a reset in tax might shift the numbers and impression any instant plans.
“However with each slowdown comes alternative. We’re seeing extra properties available on the market than final 12 months; a welcome change for patrons who’ve lengthy been starved of selection over the previous two years. While Jackson-Stops’ personal nationwide knowledge factors to a extra selective market, the image is much from uniform. Outdoors the South East, exercise within the £500k to £800k vary is bucking the development, with momentum constructing in a number of areas.
“Traditionally, what transaction knowledge tells us is that at any time when there’s a change in SDLT, the market reacts exceptionally quick. In March this 12 months, for instance, we noticed a spike in exchanges forward of the brink discount deadline, with transactions dipping ever since. What issues now’s preserving transactions flowing. A steady degree of motion underpins way more than simply property brokers — from conveyancers to elimination corporations to retail, housing fuels a significant sub-economy. Any adjustments in taxation have to be rigorously calibrated towards their financial profit. Over the previous decade, home costs have surged 60% whereas wages have barely climbed 10%. There may be an argument that capturing web wealth by home values dangers lacking the mark in a nation that’s usually asset wealthy however money poor. We help honest reform, nevertheless it should encourage development, mobility and aspiration in equal measure.”
Iain Mckenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals: “The most recent transaction knowledge gives a reassuring signal that confidence is steadily returning to the housing market. This development, coupled with a nine-month excessive in mortgage approvals and an extra easing in borrowing charges, factors to a market that’s quietly regaining momentum.
“Although many are taking a cautious stance forward of the Autumn Funds, patrons are responding to bettering affordability and extra steady mortgage situations. The Financial institution of England’s charge cuts have helped to unlock exercise, whereas the rise in out there inventory and extra sensible pricing are making a more healthy stability between provide and demand.
“We’re seeing that well-priced properties proceed to draw robust curiosity. Properties that don’t require a worth discount are promoting thrice sooner than these which might be adjusted later, which underlines the significance of correct, data-led pricing from the outset.
“Whereas uncertainty stays round future fiscal coverage, the basics are encouraging. Supplied there are not any main coverage shocks, we count on regular progress to proceed by the tip of the 12 months and into early 2026, with regional markets performing in keeping with native affordability dynamics.”
Andrew Lloyd, MD at Search Acumen: “The information reveals that homebuyers are persevering with to alternate from offers seemingly organized within the early a part of the 12 months. A gentle degree of those transactions, up barely from the standard summer time lull, represents a broadly steady residential market. However that is simply half a narrative, with a pointy drop in present purchaser exercise pre-Funds more likely to impression transactional knowledge in the direction of the tip of the 12 months. At the moment, it is a market in freeze. The everyday Autumn bounce is more likely to stay lacklustre till tax reform is introduced and monetary impacts will be weighted, with owners hoping Funds day doesn’t flip into fright night time.
“In an analogous vein, business transactions stay unseasonably subdued down 2–3% on final 12 months, reflecting continued warning from traders amid increased financing prices and financial uncertainty.
“We all know prime workplace demand is stabilising, the place secondary workplace markets are anticipated to see a decline in worth, with an analogous sample taking place inside industrials. Various markets are seeing a development in transactional tendencies, significantly in knowledge facilities and dwelling sectors.
“Like in residential, the massive driving power in business actual property is coverage change. Markets crave certainty with traders usually taking a maintain place till wider confidence returns. The upcoming announcement on enterprise charges can have a major impression on London markets, while insurance policies on lease opinions and planning will decide some key investor selections.
“With what looks like financial confidence strolling on a decent rope till the Funds, it’s essential that the Chancellor outlines reform to stimulate markets, not maintain them again. Both manner, readability will likely be a welcome reprieve after November twenty sixth.
“For attorneys, conveyancers, and property professionals, administrative inefficiencies and sluggish processes proceed to increase timelines and enhance the chance of deal fall-throughs. In nervous markets, offers usually tend to fall away from bed. Now’s the time to get forward, tighten processes, and cut back threat utilizing AI instruments. Better accuracy and effectivity are essential cornerstones in turning cautious exercise into sustained restoration.”
