Annual home worth progress slowed in November, in response to the newest Nationwide Home Value Index. The mortgage lender reported that property costs rose by 1.8% year-on-year, down barely from October’s tempo, signalling a modest lack of momentum because the market heads into the tip of the 12 months.
On a month-to-month foundation, costs elevated by 0.3%.
* Seasonally adjusted determine (notice that month-to-month % modifications are revised when seasonal adjustment elements are re-estimated) Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, stated: “November noticed a slight softening within the fee of annual home worth progress to 1.8%, from 2.4% in October. Nonetheless, costs elevated by 0.3% month on month, after taking account of seasonal results. “The housing market has remained pretty secure in latest months, with home costs rising at a modest tempo and the variety of mortgages accredited for home buy maintained at related ranges to these prevailing earlier than the pandemic. “In opposition to a backdrop of subdued client confidence and indicators of weakening within the labour market, this efficiency signifies resilience, particularly since mortgage charges are greater than double the extent they had been earlier than Covid struck and home costs are near all-time highs.” The modifications to property taxes introduced within the Price range are unlikely to have a big influence on the housing market. The excessive worth council tax surcharge, which isn’t being launched till April 2028, will apply to lower than 1% of properties in England and round 3% in London. The chart beneath reveals the share of property transactions by worth band, which is an effective proxy for the housing inventory:  Gardner continued: “The rise in taxes on revenue from properties might dampen the provision of latest rental properties coming onto the market. Rental provide has been constrained for a while, with the potential for this to take care of upward strain on rental progress, which has been operating at all-time highs in recent times. “Trying ahead, housing affordability is probably going to enhance modestly if revenue progress continues to outpace home worth progress as we count on. Borrowing prices are additionally more likely to reasonable a bit additional if Financial institution Fee is lowered once more within the coming quarters. “This could help purchaser demand, particularly since family steadiness sheets are robust. Certainly, in mixture, the ratio of family debt to disposable revenue is at its lowest for twenty years.” |
Business response:
Verona Frankish, CEO of Yopa: “A month-to-month improve in property values between October and November demonstrates simply how sturdy the housing market has been, throughout a 12 months that has been something however settled when taking a wider view of the financial panorama.
“Consumers stay engaged, market exercise is holding agency, and the market continues to maneuver ahead.
“Annual worth progress stays persistently constructive, which is the clearest indication of long-term market energy. Though the Price range supplied little direct help, 2025 has confirmed that the market can carry out strongly beneath its personal momentum, leaving us properly positioned as we transfer into 2026.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London property agent: “Nationwide’s numbers paint the image of a reasonably secure market, regardless of decrease confidence within the run-up to the Price range. Nonetheless, as this survey displays solely buyer exercise and doesn’t embody money purchases, it might be well timed however isn’t probably the most complete of studies.
“With the property measures within the Price range not proving to be as dangerous as a few of the kite flying beforehand had indicated, expectations of a modest rebound are stirring a bit extra exercise. With an earlier base fee reduce extra possible because the Financial institution of England will get a greater maintain on inflation, this may occasionally assist encourage consumers and sellers to return to the market in January with extra goal.”
Amy Reynolds, head of gross sales at Antony Roberts: “Whereas Nationwide studies little change in common home worth knowledge, on the bottom the property market was sluggish in November, notably on the larger finish, as consumers and sellers sat tight forward of the Autumn Price range. London property is straight tied to politics and the broader economic system, and the drawn-out uncertainty over potential tax modifications froze exercise and would have price the Treasury in misplaced stamp responsibility.
“Sadly, post-Price range nothing is cheaper, notably stamp responsibility, so the strain on the London market stays as earlier than and can achieve this till there may be intervention to stimulate the market.”
Man Gittins, CEO of Foxtons: “The newest Nationwide figures present that, regardless of the uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Price range, the market has remained resilient.
“With Price range-related uncertainty now behind us and no modifications to property taxes for the overwhelming majority of the market, confidence is anticipated to rebuild as extra households really feel able to resume their transferring plans over the approaching months.
“As we head into the New 12 months, the outlook is encouraging. Underlying demand stays robust, and this could assist help exercise as consumers and sellers re-engage.”
Marc von Grundherr, director of Benham and Reeves: “The truth that home costs posted constructive month-to-month progress in November, even with intense Price range hypothesis hanging over the market, reveals simply how secure and resilient situations have remained all through 2025.
“This implies the early formation of a late-season surge that usually materialises as consumers and sellers push to place their plans to maneuver in movement forward of the New 12 months.”
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals: “Nationwide’s newest figures replicate a market that continues to reveal quiet resilience. Whereas annual home worth progress softened barely to 1.8% in November, the truth that costs nonetheless rose 0.3% month on month underlines the underlying stability we’ve seen all through the second half of the 12 months.
“One of many elements preserving worth progress modest is the rise within the variety of properties coming to market in contrast with final 12 months. Consumers now have extra selection than they’ve had in years, which helps to maintain worth pressures in test and inspiring extra sensible, grounded negotiations on each side.
“Importantly, this knowledge captures a interval when many potential movers had been holding their breath forward of the Autumn Price range. With a lot hypothesis round potential housing reforms, some paused plans briefly. Now that the Price range has handed, consumers and sellers will be capable to transfer ahead with extra readability.
“Regardless of the uncertainty, the market held up properly, supported largely by needs-based movers, who are likely to drive exercise exterior the prime worth bands. Their continued presence is mirrored within the newest transaction numbers, with seasonally adjusted gross sales rising 2% between September and October to achieve their highest stage since March.
“Trying forward, there may be room for cautious optimism. Affordability ought to steadily enhance as wage progress continues to outpace home worth rises, and if inflation stays on its present trajectory, we may even see the Financial institution of England start decreasing charges within the coming months, probably as early as its subsequent assembly. Any easing in borrowing prices would supply a fine addition to each sentiment and exercise as we head into the brand new 12 months.
“Total, the message from this newest knowledge is obvious: the market stays secure, lively, and grounded, supported by strong fundamentals and a rising sense of confidence after a interval of uncertainty.”
Shepherd Ncube, CEO of Springbok Properties: Regardless of a shock month-to-month improve within the fee of home worth progress, wider market situations stay robust and the Autumn Price range has carried out nothing to assist negate this truth.
“The market has been in a state of pre-Price range paralysis for a lot of months and with the Authorities doing little to vary this, we are able to count on the property market to limp to the end line and begin 2026 on the backfoot.
“Transaction timelines are more likely to stay gradual and frustratingly unreliable. For sellers who have to progress their plans in 2025 or early 2026, the chance is obvious: delays will proceed, and lots of will discover themselves having to just accept below-market gives if they need any probability of finishing.”
