The newest RICS UK Residential Market Survey for November 2025 factors to a subdued property market following the federal government’s Autumn Finances, with key indicators of purchaser demand and gross sales volumes remaining firmly in detrimental territory.
Ahead-looking indicators provide little optimism for a near-term restoration, with brokers predicting that the market could not see significant enchancment till Spring 2026. Survey respondents highlighted the dampening impact of pre-Finances uncertainty and media “leaks”, whereas welcoming the federal government’s determination to restrict the excessive worth council tax surcharge to properties valued above £2m.
The survey reveals continued declines throughout agreed gross sales, purchaser enquiries, and new directions, with London home costs significantly affected by the Finances’s tax measures. New purchaser enquiries in November recorded a internet stability of -32%, down from -24% in October, marking the weakest studying since late 2023. Agreed gross sales posted a internet stability of -23%, largely unchanged from final month’s -24%, underscoring a persistent downward pattern in gross sales exercise.
Wanting forward, the near-term gross sales expectations sequence posted a internet stability of -6%, barely weaker than the earlier -3% however nonetheless in line with a largely flat outlook for gross sales for the approaching three months. Over the 12 months forward, nonetheless, a internet stability of +15% of respondents anticipate gross sales volumes will choose up, a extra constructive consequence than the +7% recorded final month.
The headline internet stability for brand spanking new directions was -19%, just like the earlier studying of -20%, indicating a continued slowdown within the circulation of properties being listed on the market.
Respondents additionally more and more report that the variety of market value determinations being undertaken is operating beneath ranges seen twelve months in the past, with the web stability slipping to -40% (falling additional into detrimental territory for the fourth consecutive month). This implies the pipeline for brand spanking new directions is more likely to stay subdued within the close to time period.
Survey suggestions continues to level to a delicate decline in home costs on the combination degree, posting a internet stability of -16% in November. Nevertheless internet stability in London dropped to -44%, now extra detrimental than some other a part of the UK, partly as a result of introduction of the Excessive Valuation Council Tax Surcharge. In distinction, respondents in each Northern Eire and Scotland proceed to quote an upward pattern in home costs.
Close to-term value expectations have been little modified in November, with a nationwide internet stability of -15% registered (-12% beforehand). The twelve-month expectations sequence moved barely greater, with a internet stability of +24% anticipating home costs will resume an upward trajectory over the approaching 12 months (the strongest studying since June).
Within the lettings market, the web stability for landlord directions stays deeply detrimental at -39%, with respondents pointing to a brand new earnings tax on property introduced within the Finances as an element that would additional scale back new landlord directions.
The month-to-month tenant demand indicator fell to a internet stability of -22%, the weakest studying since April 2020. Whereas a few of this softness seemingly displays seasonality (the month-to-month lettings information is just not seasonally adjusted), there seems to be a broader cooling in tenant demand.
Close to-term expectations for rental costs stand at a internet stability of +6%, pointing to solely marginal will increase over the following three months (the flattest studying for the reason that early phases of the pandemic). Nonetheless, on a twelve-month horizon, respondents undertaking a +2.5% rise in rents, solely barely beneath the roughly 3% common anticipated trying again over the previous six months.
The report signifies that the market is more likely to stay subdued till early 2026, when seasonal circumstances enhance.
RICS chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn, mentioned: “The housing market has been struggling for momentum for a number of months, and the current Finances bulletins are unlikely to materially shift that image. The ending of Finances associated uncertainty is welcome, however the basic challenges of affordability and elevated borrowing prices will most likely maintain exercise subdued within the close to time period. That mentioned, the twelve-month outlook has brightened considerably, seemingly reflecting a rising sense that the Financial institution of England could have a bit of extra scope to cut back rates of interest than appeared believable solely a short time in the past.
“In the meantime within the lettings market, though tenant demand does look like softening the shortage of inventory is maintaining rental expectations elevated and the extra tax levied on landlords within the Finances will seemingly exacerbate this pattern.”
Reflecting on the RICS’s newest UK Residential Market Survey, Tom Invoice, head of UK residential analysis at Knight Frank, commented: “The barrage of property tax hypothesis earlier than the Finances unsurprisingly soured sentiment amongst consumers and sellers. Now there’s readability, we count on current transactions to speed up earlier than Christmas, and exercise ought to stay comparatively robust in early 2026.
“A downwards trajectory for rates of interest will assist demand however political uncertainty will change into the important thing threat. The sport of ‘guess the tax rise’ performed in current months may change into a recreation of ‘guess the Chancellor’ if subsequent spring’s native elections are as unhealthy for Labour because the polls recommend.”
Anthony Codling, the managing director of fairness analysis at RBC Capital Markets, added: “The newest RICS UK Residential Market Survey displays the preliminary response of its members to the Finances. Briefly, they weren’t amused. To be honest, few of us do our greatest work within the speedy aftermath of a serious occasion and the construct as much as the Finances was fairly draining for these concerned within the property market.
“Those that are feeling fragile could not want to dig too deeply into the most recent RICS report. Nevertheless, the excellent news is that there are solely 14 sleeps till Christmas and UK households love the scent of Rightmove on Boxing Day morning (we count on document viewing figures), and we consider that RICS’ December survey will probably be extra upbeat than the post-Finances November version.”
