Hydrogen Forklifts Are A Rounding Error, Not A Rebuttal

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Somebody responded to a just-published article about one more hydrogen fleet failure by pointing to hydrogen gas cell forklifts in US distribution facilities. The implication was clear. If hydrogen works in forklifts, then the broader critique of hydrogen transport should be flawed. It’s a acquainted transfer. It’s also deeply flawed and biased. I don’t even contemplate the argument to be in good religion, it’s so weak. They’re reaching for an instance that sounds tangible. Invoking hydrogen forklifts as proof that hydrogen transport is successful requires ignoring scale so utterly that the argument collapses on contact with primary statistics.

The core drawback is denominators. Any declare about success or failure that depends on a numerator with out a denominator is meaningless. This isn’t a matter of opinion or ideology. It’s elementary statistics. Just a few thousand models can sound spectacular in isolation. The second these models are positioned towards thousands and thousands of comparable belongings, the interpretation adjustments utterly. Persevering with to say validation after that comparability is made will not be a mistake. It’s mental dishonesty. When hydrogen forklifts are used as a protection of hydrogen transport, the numerator is doing all of the work, and the denominator is being intentionally ignored.

Globally, forklifts are a big and mature industrial market. Annual gross sales are within the vary of two.2 million models, in line with the long-running World Industrial Truck Statistics dataset. Roughly 70% of these forklifts are battery electrical. Many of the the rest are diesel, LPG, or CNG. Hydrogen gas cell forklifts are measured within the low hundreds per 12 months. That places hydrogen properly under 0.1% of world forklift gross sales, therefore the shortage of the road for them even displaying up on this chart although they’re within the knowledge set that generated it. At that scale, hydrogen will not be a distinct segment contender. It’s a rounding error. Claiming {that a} expertise is succeeding primarily based on a share that rounds to zero will not be evaluation. It’s narrative protection.

It’s properly value noting that World Industrial Truck Statistics understates complete forklift volumes. The undercount is overwhelmingly on the electrical aspect, not hydrogen. China produces and deploys a whole lot of hundreds of electrical forklifts every year, notably Class 3 pallet vans and walk-behind models that by no means enter export statistics and are inconsistently reported into Western datasets. China is way extra electrified in materials dealing with than North America or Europe. When these models are totally accounted for, the worldwide denominator grows to round 3 million, and the electrical share will increase. Hydrogen doesn’t profit from this correction. Its relative share shrinks additional.

Zooming in to the USA doesn’t rescue the argument. The US market sells on the order of 900,000 to 1,000,000 forklifts per 12 months, relying on whether or not one seems at shipments or orders. Battery electrical forklifts dominate US indoor logistics, with 70% of these annual gross sales being electrical, and solely 50,000 to 60,000 hydrogen forklifts in complete after greater than a dozen years of gross sales. Inner combustion forklifts retain a presence in heavier and out of doors purposes. Hydrogen forklifts change into extra seen than they’re globally, however visibility will not be dominance. Even within the US, hydrogen forklifts signify a small fraction of electrical forklifts, and a tiny fraction of complete forklifts. The denominator nonetheless issues. Shrinking the body doesn’t change the mathematics.

At this level, defenders of hydrogen virtually at all times pivot to the identical examples. Amazon. Walmart. House Depot. These are the biggest US distribution methods, and they’re usually introduced as proof that hydrogen forklifts have gained at scale. That is the place selective disclosure turns into central to the misunderstanding. Hydrogen forklift counts are typically disclosed by these companies or by their provider, Plug Energy. Complete forklift fleets should not. That asymmetry creates a distorted image. When solely hydrogen numbers are seen, it’s simple for motivated readers to imagine hydrogen is dominant. It’s not.

Walmart supplies the clearest historic anchor. In 2016, Walmart disclosed that it had roughly 4,200 hydrogen forklifts, representing about 20% of its US forklift fleet. That suggests a complete fleet of about 21,000 forklifts on the time. Since then, Walmart has elevated its hydrogen forklift rely to roughly 9,500 to 10,000 models, in line with commerce press and provider statements. What Walmart has not disclosed is its present complete forklift fleet. With out that denominator, hydrogen development can’t be interpreted as dominance. Even when the overall fleet doubled since 2016, hydrogen would stay a minority expertise inside Walmart’s operations.

Amazon discloses that it operates greater than 15,000 hydrogen gas cell forklifts in the USA, with a said goal of round 20,000. That sounds giant till it’s positioned in context. Amazon operates a whole lot of success facilities, sortation facilities, and supply stations throughout North America. Logistics engineering benchmarks present that a big success middle generally operates 150 to 300 forklifts throughout a number of shifts. Smaller services function fewer, however they’re quite a few. Utilizing publicly obtainable facility counts and conservative per-facility forklift ranges, Amazon’s US forklift fleet plausibly sits within the excessive tens of hundreds. Underneath these circumstances, hydrogen forklifts should not dominant. They’re a subset, concentrated in particular services and particular lessons of kit.

House Depot follows the identical sample, however with even much less disclosure. It has used hydrogen forklifts in some distribution facilities because the mid-2010s. No public supply supplies a complete rely of both hydrogen forklifts or complete forklifts throughout its US operations. Estimation utilizing facility counts and customary forklift densities once more yields a fleet the place hydrogen is current however clearly secondary to battery electrical gear. The absence of printed totals doesn’t indicate hydrogen dominance. It merely displays regular company reporting practices.

Estimating forklift fleets responsibly begins with facility counts that firms themselves disclose. Amazon operates on the order of 175 giant success facilities in the USA, alongside a number of hundred smaller sortation and supply services. Warehouse design and materials dealing with research from companies like MHI members and main integrators persistently present that a big success middle usually operates between 150 and 300 forklifts throughout a number of shifts, whereas smaller services function between 20 and 80. Utilizing the low finish of these ranges yields a tough estimate of 175 giant services instances 150 forklifts, or about 26,000 forklifts, plus 250 smaller websites instances 30 forklifts, or one other 7,500. Even conservative assumptions due to this fact put Amazon’s US forklift fleet within the vary of 30,000 to 40,000 models.

Walmart supplies a helpful cross-check as a result of it disclosed each hydrogen forklift counts and complete fleet share earlier in its adoption cycle. In 2016, Walmart reported roughly 4,200 hydrogen forklifts, representing about 20% of its US forklift fleet, implying a complete of roughly 21,000 forklifts at the moment. Walmart has since elevated its hydrogen forklift rely to round 9,500 to 10,000 models, primarily based on provider disclosures and commerce reporting. Even when Walmart’s complete forklift fleet grew solely modestly since 2016, hydrogen forklifts would nonetheless account for properly underneath half of the fleet. Any cheap development in complete forklifts solely pushes hydrogen’s share decrease.

Nationwide forklift inventory estimates present an outer certain that retains these calculations grounded. The US is estimated to have on the order of three million forklifts in operation throughout all sectors. For Amazon, Walmart, and House Depot mixed to function, for instance, 150,000 forklifts would indicate they management round 5% of all US forklifts, which already stretches plausibility. Inserting their mixed fleets within the tens of hundreds aligns with each facility-based estimates and disclosed hydrogen counts. Throughout all of those strategies, hydrogen forklifts stay a minority expertise even inside probably the most hydrogen-friendly companies in the USA.

It’s also necessary to grasp why forklifts had been ever thought-about a hydrogen area of interest within the first place. The unique attraction had little to do with hydrogen being inherently superior. It was a response to the bounds of lead-acid batteries. Lengthy charging instances, battery swapping labor, and area constraints created operational ache in multi-shift warehouses. Hydrogen provided quick refueling and constant energy output. That benefit was actual for a time. It was additionally momentary. Lithium-ion batteries eradicated most of these constraints. Quick charging, alternative charging, decrease upkeep, and falling prices erased hydrogen’s operational edge. Hydrogen didn’t lose due to ideology. It was overtaken by higher and naturally cheaper electrical expertise.

Direct public assist for hydrogen forklifts in the USA is actual and properly documented. Essentially the most specific federal intervention got here by means of the Division of Power’s Gasoline Cell Applied sciences Workplace underneath the 2009 American Restoration and Reinvestment Act. DOE reviews present roughly $9.7 million in federal grant funding directed particularly at gas cell raise truck deployments, paired with about $11.8 million in business value share. These packages supported the deployment of slightly below 700 hydrogen gas cell forklifts and included funding for on-site hydrogen refueling gear, coaching, and knowledge assortment. The onsite refueling infrastructure made the gas cell lifts sticky in fact, making it decrease friction to purchase just a few extra hydrogen forklifts quite than simply utilizing battery electrical as virtually everyone does. Particular person awards inside that program included roughly $6.1 million for GENCO, $1.3 million for a FedEx Freight deployment masking 35 forklifts at a single facility, and round $1.1 million related to Nuvera. These grants had been explicitly supposed to seed early markets and cut back first-mover threat, to not reveal unsubsidized business competitiveness.

Past direct grants, hydrogen forklifts and their fueling infrastructure have benefited from tax-based subsidies which are tougher to complete as a result of they’re claimed privately and reported solely in combination. DOE supplies and IRS steerage clarify that gas cells utilized in materials dealing with have been eligible for an funding tax credit score of as much as 30% of capital value or as much as $3,000 per kW, relying on the 12 months and program construction. Hydrogen shelling out gear has additionally been eligible for the Part 30C different gas refueling credit score, which after latest legislative updates can cowl as much as 30% of put in value for qualifying enterprise property, topic to location and labor necessities. These incentives can materially enhance undertaking economics at particular person websites, however there is no such thing as a public ledger displaying how a lot has been claimed particularly for forklift fleets, which makes it unimaginable to supply a exact complete subsidy determine from tax credit alone.

The broader hydrogen forklift ecosystem has additionally been supported not directly by means of large-scale federal financing for Plug Energy, which provides a lot of the gas cells, fueling gear, and hydrogen to those fleets. In 2024 and 2025, the Division of Power’s Mortgage Packages Workplace finalized a mortgage assure on the order of $1.6 billion to assist Plug Energy’s hydrogen manufacturing and liquefaction tasks. This was not a grant and doesn’t goal forklifts instantly, however it clearly lowers financing threat and capital prices for the hydrogen provide community that firms like Amazon and Walmart depend on for his or her forklift operations. Taken collectively, the file reveals that hydrogen forklifts in the USA emerged and continued in a subsidy-rich surroundings that mixed early deployment grants, ongoing tax credit, state-level clear gas packages in locations like California, and huge federal monetary backing for the dominant provider. What can’t be recognized with out entry to confidential tax filings is the complete cumulative worth of these subsidies. What might be stated with confidence is that hydrogen forklifts didn’t scale within the absence of public assist, and their continued use displays that coverage historical past as a lot because it does operational alternative.

In latest months Plug Energy’s monetary place has shifted to determined retrenchment and cuts to the bone, with direct implications for hydrogen forklift operators in the USA. After securing the massive Division of Power mortgage assure supposed to finance a number of hydrogen manufacturing and liquefaction services, the corporate later signaled that it might not proceed with these tasks underneath the mortgage construction. That call displays ongoing liquidity stress and an effort to keep away from taking up extra obligations tied to long-dated, capital-intensive infrastructure. On the similar time, Plug Energy has diminished working and upkeep spending, deferred tasks, and narrowed its focus to preserving money and sustaining present buyer commitments quite than constructing out the vertically built-in hydrogen community it beforehand promised. As I famous, cuts to upkeep of business hydrogen era services improve threat considerably, and my first hope is that no workers are harmed in one more hydrogen explosion or hearth, ending up Hydrogen Insights’ mounting record of incidents, accidents and fatalities.

For operators working hydrogen forklift fleets, this retrenchment introduces new uncertainty. Hydrogen provide preparations that had been initially marketed as steady, vertically built-in, and more and more low value now rely extra closely on third-party sourcing and short-term business contracts. Value management measures at Plug Energy additionally increase questions concerning the long-term robustness of upkeep, service, and refueling assist for put in forklift fleets. Even when day-to-day operations proceed, the shift in technique underscores that hydrogen forklifts in the USA are tied to a provider ecosystem underneath monetary pressure, to not a self-sustaining market. That threat profile issues when hydrogen forklifts are introduced as proof of a expertise that has already gained.

What stays at this time is path dependence. Hydrogen forklifts persist the place infrastructure was constructed early and the place alternative cycles are sluggish. Persistence will not be validation. A expertise can survive in a distinct segment with out ever being aggressive at scale. Complicated the 2 is the deeper analytical error. Forklifts are merely the clearest illustration as a result of the numbers are so stark and the market is so mature.

What the commenter on the earlier article was doing will not be refined, and it has a reputation. It’s base charge neglect, probably the most primary statistical error, the place a numerator is introduced as significant whereas the denominator is ignored. Pointing to a couple tens of hundreds of hydrogen forklifts in the USA whereas disregarding thousands and thousands of forklifts offered globally every year, and the overwhelming dominance of battery electrical gear will not be evaluation.

Layered on high of that’s the logical fallacy of cherry-picking, choosing the one geography and one area of interest the place hydrogen is most seen whereas ignoring available international knowledge and the a lot increased electrification charges in locations like China. The conduct is pushed by motivated reasoning, the place proof is filtered to defend a previous perception quite than take a look at it. The statistical language they have an inclination to make use of offers the looks of literacy, however the reasoning violates the primary guidelines anybody skilled in statistics would apply. As soon as scale and base charges have been defined, persevering with to current a rounding error as validation is not confusion. It’s an intellectually dishonest try and sign experience whereas ignoring the load of the proof. It’s an indication of deep cognitive biases that they refuse to even contemplate, by no means thoughts overcome.

A associated rhetorical transfer seems when advocates level to claims similar to a 40% 12 months over 12 months improve in hydrogen transportation gross sales in South Korea. A determine like that’s designed to sound decisive, as a result of giant percentages set off salience. They really feel like momentum. What is sort of at all times lacking is the bottom charge. If hydrogen transportation gross sales begin from a really small quantity, then a 40% improve nonetheless leaves the class trivial when set towards the general transport market. The proportion is doing the persuasive work exactly as a result of absolutely the numbers are unimpressive. That is base charge neglect and denominator blindness mixed with a salience trick, the place an attention-grabbing development charge crowds out the extra necessary query of scale. Development charges solely change into significant when the underlying denominator is giant sufficient to matter. With out that context, a 40% improve will not be proof of success. It’s a method of constructing a rounding error really feel vital.

I’ve addressed the irrelevancy of US hydrogen forklifts earlier than, however buried it in articles and feedback. It was time to dedicate a while and area to it in order that subsequent time somebody tries to waste somebody’s time by pointing to it, I can simply paste within the article and transfer on. As I’ve famous prior to now, far too giant a portion of my publications might be defined by the XKCD cartoon Responsibility Calls.

This issues past forklifts. The identical rhetorical sample seems throughout hydrogen buses, vans, trains, and different transport purposes. A small surviving deployment is handled as proof of viability, whereas the denominator is ignored. Scale is elective solely in narratives. In actual vitality methods, scale is every thing. Applied sciences that can’t transfer past rounding errors don’t fail morally. They fail mathematically. Hydrogen forklifts don’t rescue hydrogen transport. They reveal its limits.

Advocates for hydrogen for vitality, whether or not heading European hydrogen lobbying organizations or just boneheaded commenters on the web, persistently make these form of rhetorical arguments, present this prepared blindness to empirical actuality and spew logical fallacies as if they’re gotchas. It’s outstanding that they get away with it so usually. It’s much more outstanding that they will look themselves within the mirror and faux to mental rigor and statistical competence. Personally, I’d be deeply ashamed.