Europe Dangers Dropping Its Early E-Fuels Lead for Aviation, Research Warns

Because the aviation sector gathers on the Worldwide Paris Air Present, a brand new T&E examine highlights Europe’s potential to be an e-kerosene trailblazer – essentially the most scalable sustainable aviation gas (SAF) – however extreme bottlenecks imply it might lose its first mover benefit.

Europe a frontrunner on e-kerosene bulletins, laggard on implementation

A brand new T&E examine reveals that Europe is usually a chief in e-kerosene (additionally known as e-SAF), housing greater than half of the world’s introduced manufacturing capability. Round 40 large-scale initiatives [1] are deliberate in Europe, with a possible e-kerosene manufacturing capability of shut to three million tonnes (Mt) per 12 months — roughly 5% of the gas that Europe’s aviation sector must function.

Europe’s early lead within the e-kerosene market has been pushed by the EU’s regulation on sustainable aviation fuels, ReFuelEU, which set particular targets for utilizing e-fuels in aviation. If all of the introduced initiatives had been constructed, the EU might meet these targets — however not one of the large-scale crops recognized on this report are even below development. Solely 4 are at a complicated stage [2], and none have reached a closing funding resolution (FID). This gradual progress is because of an array of challenges, with financing posing the most important barrier, and conventional gas suppliers being notably absent from the dialog.

Camile Mutrelle, Aviation Coverage Officer at T&E, mentioned: “The EU’s regulation on sustainable aviation fuels kick-started an e-kerosene revolution in Europe — however gas suppliers will not be cashing in on this potential. With out extra closing funding choices, the EU’s 2030 goal and plans to prosper from inexperienced aviation will fail. To succeed, these initiatives want a secure authorized framework, as offered by ReFuelEU, and funding via an array of public help mechanisms and personal capital investments.”

With a possible to chop CO₂ emissions by greater than 90% in comparison with fossil kerosene, e-kerosene is essential to decarbonising aviation, an emission-intensive trade that’s projected to maintain on rising [3]. As representatives of the trade collect on the Worldwide Paris Air Present right this moment, an occasion showcasing the expansion, prowess and newest improvements in aviation, the examine’s findings spotlight that regardless of progress, the trail to considerably lowering aviation emissions via really sustainable options stays lengthy and complicated.

Whereas Europe is at the moment the chief for e-kerosene [4], different markets are creeping up. China is the second-largest hub – round 10 large-scale initiatives have been introduced right here, representing round 20% of worldwide capability. America can be selecting up the tempo, with the most important e-kerosene offtake settlement so far secured by a US-based startup, and one of many world’s first FIDs for a large-scale e-kerosene plant secured in Could by Infinium, one other US-based startup [5].

Funding bottlenecks and oil majors are hampering progress

Regardless of beneficial situations, e-kerosene initiatives proceed to face important hurdles in Europe, together with challenges associated to power prices, infrastructure, and CO₂ sourcing. Regulatory uncertainty can be within the combine, caused by trade strain [6] to delay ReFuelEU’s SAF targets in anticipation of the scheduled evaluate of the laws in 2027

Financing poses the most important barrier, with every plant requiring €1–2 billion in capital, bringing complete capital necessities to €10 – 20 billion by 2030. EU funding mechanisms for e-kerosene will not be robust sufficient to help the extent of funding wanted to get these initiatives off the bottom, and conventional gas suppliers are notably absent from the dialog. Up to now, main oil corporations have made negligible contributions to e-kerosene, whereas persevering with to spend billions on fossil fuels.

“Regardless of their big monetary capability, main oil corporations are largely absent from the e-kerosene market,” Camile Mutrelle acknowledged. “Startups have taken the lead, however lack the inner sources to finance the capital-intensive infrastructure that’s urgently wanted. Getting oil majors on board and EU financing mechanisms as much as scratch will give e-kerosene the lift-off it wants. The upcoming Sustainable Transport Funding Plan is an opportunity to set the best flight path by prioritising e-SAF, offering a complete mechanism to handle the challenges EU initiatives face.”

T&E urges EU leaders to reaffirm their dedication to the present ReFuelEU targets, particularly within the run-up to the laws’s scheduled evaluate, and prioritise e-kerosene within the Sustainable Transport Funding Plan (STIP). It additionally requires a European market middleman utilizing a double-sided public sale mechanism to be established to handle the present points round financing.

Notes to the editor:

[1]  Giant-scale initiatives are outlined as ones with a manufacturing capability of greater than 10,000 tonnes of e-kerosene a 12 months.

[2] This implies the challenge is both present process the Entrance-Finish Engineering Design (FEED) section or pending closing funding resolution (FID) after finishing their FEED.

[3]  T&E, 2025. All the way down to earth: Why European aviation must urgently handle its progress downside

[4] The highest 5 markets by way of introduced manufacturing capability are France (0.8 Mt), Norway (0.3 Mt), Finland (0.3 Mt), Sweden (0.3 Mt) and the Netherlands (0.3 Mt), nations which boast low-carbon grids and robust renewable power sources. France is residence to essentially the most introduced initiatives in Europe (11), doubling its initiatives and manufacturing capability since final 12 months.

[5]  The Infinium challenge is ready to supply as much as 23,000 tonnes of e-fuels per 12 months.

[6]  Monetary Occasions, 2025. “European airways urge EU to drag again on local weather insurance policies”

Obtain the complete T&E evaluation of the worldwide e-SAF market.

Information launch from T&E.