EVs Take 98.4% Share In Norway – BEV Fleet Overtakes Diesel

Help CleanTechnica’s work by a Substack subscription or on Stripe.

November noticed plugin EVs take 98.4% share in Norway, up from 94.9% yr on yr. BEVs alone took 97.6% share. Total auto quantity was 19,889 items, up some 70% YoY. The Tesla Mannequin Y was the best-selling automobile in November.

November’s auto market noticed mixed EVs take 98.4% share in Norway, comprising 97.6% full electrics (BEVs) and 0.8% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These examine with YoY figures of 94.9% mixed, 93.6% BEV and 1.3% PHEV.

The residual powertrain shares in November have been 0.8% PHEV, 0.8% HEV, 0.7% diesel, and 0.1% petrol. Because the market resettled after the brand new auto tax insurance policies have been launched again in April, the cumulative share of residual powertrains has been:

PHEV  – 0.93%
Diesel – 0.83%
HEV    – 0.63%
Petrol – 0.21%

That is considerably rational and anticipated, and as new BEV fashions attain into extra niches, at more and more reasonably priced worth factors, these already small residuals will additional erode.

As talked about in final month’s report, tighter VAT guidelines arriving from January 1st on greater priced BEVs – priced over 300,000 NOK or €25,300 – will result in a pull-forward of those fashions in December, and a hangover for them in Q1 2026. We are going to look ahead to this within the gross sales information.

Greatest-Promoting Fashions

The Tesla Mannequin Y was once more the best-seller in November, with 3,645 items. The Tesla Mannequin 3 got here in second with 2,561 items. This gave Tesla extra quantity than the subsequent 12 fashions mixed, a outstanding end result.

In third was the Volkswagen ID.4, with 848 items, solely fractionally forward of the Volvo EX40 (828 items).

There have been no nice surprises within the prime 20. Two good worth Chinese language made vehicles, the Mazda 6E, and the Xpeng G9, each noticed robust volumes, and featured within the chart. The Xpeng G9 noticed its second highest ever volumes (266 items), virtually on the stage of its “massive splash” month of early deliveries again in November 2023 (298 items).

There have been 7 (sure seven) new debutant BEV fashions in November, although few of those are destined to be excessive quantity fashions. The Suzuki Vitara compact SUV launched with 77 items, as did its rebadged twin cousin, the Toyota City Cruiser (6 items). Neither have excellent effectivity or specs, however model loyalists could also be tempted, and future generations of those autos ought to get higher.

The Deepal model launched the S05 SUV, a barely smaller possibility than its present S07 (4620 mm vs 4750 mm). Because the S07 has solely bought in very low numbers (a complete of 42 items) since launching in July, don’t anticipate massive waves from the S05 both, although it can most likely outsell its sibling.

The Fiat Grande Panda has now launched in Norway (8 preliminary items), a number of months after launching in different European markets. Stellantis is just not pushing BEVs with a lot enthusiasm in Norway, so we are able to’t anticipate nice volumes from this mannequin both.  Likewise, the brand new Citroen e-C5 (2 preliminary items) is not going to see excessive volumes in Norway.

The brand new Lucid Gravity noticed one registration in November. Except Lucid can type out its infamous software program points, they won’t discover acceptance on this extremely mature BEV market. Maybe this single unit is destined for intensive winter testing in Norway by certainly one of Lucid’s rivals?

Maybe the brand new mannequin with respectable potential is the brand new MG S6, a D-segment SUV (4708 mm). Its older sibling the MG S5 has already matured into a daily member of the highest 20 best-sellers, and there’s an opportunity that the brand new S6 will discover related success. Let’s regulate it.

Let’s check out the most recent trailing-3-month rankings:

The Tesla Mannequin Y stays strongly dominant in Norway, and its sibling the Mannequin 3 can also be very talked-about. All different fashions are “additionally rans” by comparability.

The most important climber since 3 months prior was the Mazda 6e, which now stands in twentieth, from almost-absent earlier than. The 6e is basically a rebadged model of the Deepal L07 (from Changan, Mazda’s manufacturing associate in China). It’s a giant semi-premium sedan, competing with the Volkswagen ID.7, and is comparatively good worth.

Relying on whether or not its current quantity may be sustained, we may even see the Xpeng G9 enter the highest 20 within the coming few months. Let’s regulate it.

Fleet replace

The Norwegian OFV famous that the dimensions of the BEV fleet has now overtaken that of diesels to change into the plurality powertrain within the passenger automotive fleet. As of the top of November, BEVs comprised 31.78% of the fleet, whereas diesels comprised 31.76%.

Petrol share (now all the way down to 23.9%) was already surpassed by BEVs a few years in the past, and PHEVs and HEVs have already peaked at 7.18% and 5.38% respectively.  I’ll have the up to date fleet graphs within the end-of-year report subsequent month.

Outlook

With the tighter VAT guidelines arriving on January 1st, we are going to look ahead to the slight discontinuity in gross sales of some greater finish fashions over the approaching months.  Norway’s auto quantity (now virtually all BEVs) is up 25% yr thus far, which is able to additional speed up the fleet turnover price.

Norway’s macroeconomic information is habitually erratic because of the giant dimension of public spending, and the obese influence that (variable worth) fossil-fuel gross sales have on the nationwide pocketbook. Preliminary GDP information from Q2 confirmed a downward swing to adverse 2.1% YoY, however the figures for Q2 have since been softened to adverse 0.6%, and Q3’s outcomes swung again to optimistic 2.1% YoY. Inflation was down to three% (newest information), and rates of interest remained flat at 4%. Manufacturing PMI jumped as much as 53 factors in November, from 48.2 in October.

What are your ideas on Norway’s transition? What fashions do you anticipate to do effectively within the coming months, and can shoppers in Norway ever begin to cool on Tesla, as they’ve in another European markets? Please soar into the dialogue under to share your concepts.