The variety of houses bought in October rose to 98,450, up 2% on September however 2% decrease than in the identical month final yr, based on the most recent HMRC property transactions knowledge.
Provisional seasonally adjusted figures additionally present that business property gross sales dropped sharply, falling 29% year-on-year to 10,250. Nonetheless, this represented a 2% enhance on September’s stage.
Brokers say the stableness in residential transaction volumes underlines the housing market’s resilience regardless of ongoing uncertainty. However some warn that additional measures could also be wanted to stimulate exercise, which stays subdued in contrast with longer-term norms.
Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark, commented: “Usually on the lead as much as any Finances announcement, the housing market can witness a level of hesitation, as folks look to evaluate what could be proposed. Nonetheless, any such influence beforehand is just not an actual science to the magnitude of uncertainty. With decrease base charges than solely twelve months again, it’s optimistic to see ahead momentum when it comes to progress within the variety of housing transactions happening each yr on yr and month on month whereas referring to the non-seasonally adjusted figures.
“Throughout the Finances, it was disappointing to not witness any help for first-time consumers and help for many who could also be contemplating downsizing within the Finances at a time of utmost demand on present housing inventory. There was what seems like a missed alternative to advertise the idea of individuals having the ability to transfer extra simply to a property that matches their exact wants.”
Amy Reynolds, head of gross sales at Richmond property company Antony Roberts, mentioned: “Whereas not but mirrored in these official, but dated, figures, brokers reported that exercise slowed forward of the Finances and now we’re within the run-up to Christmas, we don’t count on this to enhance considerably. Nonetheless, we hope that the market will choose up within the New Yr, notably because the measures within the Finances didn’t grow to be as dangerous as many feared.
“Sadly, nothing has received cheaper with regards to transferring, notably stamp obligation, so the stress in the marketplace stays as earlier than and can accomplish that till there may be intervention to stimulate it.”
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, believes the most recent transaction knowledge exhibits a mixed-bag; while there have been stories of transactions urgent forward to beat the Finances deadline, in the primary his company noticed a market on pause. Nonetheless, regardless of this pitstop, the engine remained essentially sturdy fuelled by lifestyle-led strikes.
He commented: “Now the chancellor’s adjustments have been introduced, there could also be a number of asset-rich cash-poor owners that have to redraw the roadmap, however many will select to race forward with the good thing about higher readability.
“It’s seemingly we are going to see extra inventory come to the market within the quick time period, with minor value changes for properties simply over the £2m cliff edge. We would additionally see a rise in demand for houses underneath the tax restrict, the place consumers alter budgets with family cashflow in thoughts. For the South East, this might create upward stress on costs within the mid-tier and even lower-end property markets, resulting in spillover results for demand in new areas.
“Jackson-Stops’ nationwide figures present a extra selective market general, nevertheless it’s removed from a one-size-fits-all story. Outdoors the South East, the £500k–£800k bracket is bucking the pattern, with momentum gathering tempo – proof that some areas are very a lot placing their foot again on the fuel. We have now heard from brokers throughout the nation following the Finances that prime consumers are transferring at tempo with readability now in thoughts.
“Historical past exhibits that when SDLT adjustments, the housing market doesn’t simply react, it leaps. In March, exchanges surged as consumers raced to beat the brink discount deadline, just for exercise to catch its breath afterwards. Now, the hot button is holding transactions transferring and costs steady. A fluid market oils excess of property company alone: conveyancers, removals, native trades and even retail all depend on housing to maintain their wheels turning.”
Andrew Lloyd, MD at Search Acumen, famous: “The info suggests each housing and business markets have slipped right into a holding sample, with residential transactions drifting barely decrease than October 2024. This isn’t a collapse, it’s a pause. Patrons and sellers have been urgent the ‘wait’ button whereas making an attempt to make sense of the Chancellor’s strikes and it’s clear that funds blundering has left many unsure, holding timid transactions tainting market momentum.”
“In business actual property, the image is analogous however extra pronounced. Exercise stays materially weaker than final yr’s October spike, as buyers proceed to weigh financing prices, emptiness dangers and the looming choices on enterprise charges. Sure sectors might rebound sooner as soon as readability emerges, however for now, coverage uncertainty, not pricing, is the primary brake on momentum.”
“The trade is seeing the standard seasonal slowdown collide with a pre-Finances freeze, creating what seems like a double drag on confidence. Now the chancellor has spoken, we’ll see whether or not pent-up choices ripple by the information earlier than year-end or whether or not uncertainty lingers into Q1 2026. Companies which might be tightening workflows and leaning into AI to speed up due diligence and cut back bottlenecks might be finest positioned to maintain offers alive by this era of hesitation.”
