Hydrogen Can’t Minimize The Mustard, Even In Dijon

Help CleanTechnica’s work via a Substack subscription or on Stripe.

Dijon is a helpful hydrogen transportation case research as a result of it was critical, early, and effectively funded. This was not a symbolic pilot. The town dedicated actual capital, constructed infrastructure, signed provide agreements, and meant to function hydrogen autos at scale throughout buses, refuse vehicles, and lightweight municipal fleets. The intention was coherent. The result was not and so they’ve introduced a serious discount and alter of their hydrogen plans, in addition to a pivot to battery electrical. They made the announcement at one of many conventional occasions for bulletins of full and utter failures, on the finish of the week simply earlier than Christmas, hoping nobody would discover. There’s been a rash of quiet bulletins of hydrogen failures up to now week because of this.

The unique hydrogen plan in Dijon rested on two linked concepts. The primary was native manufacturing of hydrogen by electrolysis. The second was that a lot of the electrical energy would come from municipal waste to vitality. Roughly 90% of the electrical energy for electrolysis was deliberate to return from the waste incinerator—one thing which caught my eye instantly in its announcement—with the remaining 10% from native renewable electrical energy. The hydrogen would gasoline buses, refuse assortment vehicles, and a smaller variety of mild autos. The promise was native vitality, circularity, and low emissions.

The issue is that electrolysis multiplies the carbon depth of electrical energy. At about 55 kWh of electrical energy per kg of hydrogen, each gram of CO2 per kWh turns into 55 grams per kg of hydrogen. Municipal waste to vitality in Europe sometimes sits round 700 to 900 gCO2e per kWh on an attributional foundation as soon as plastics and fossil carbon in waste are counted. Utilizing a mid worth of 790 gCO2e per kWh, the electrical energy alone would produce about 43 kgCO2e per kg of hydrogen earlier than any losses. Including 5% to 10% hydrogen leakage utilizing a GWP20 of about 37 raises that to roughly 45 to 47 kgCO2e per kg of hydrogen delivered. That’s earlier than compression, storage losses, or station vitality use.

For a 12 m metropolis bus in Dijon, I assumed an obligation cycle of about 60,000 km per 12 months. Actual world hydrogen bus consumption from European demonstration fleets averages about 7.7 kg per 100 km. That works out to about 4,620 kg of hydrogen per bus per 12 months. Multiplying by about 45 kgCO2e per kg of hydrogen provides roughly 208 tons of CO2e per bus per 12 months. A traditional diesel bus on the identical responsibility cycle utilizing about 52 L per 100 km consumes about 31,200 L of diesel yearly. At 2.68 kgCO2 per L, that’s about 83 tons of CO2 per 12 months. The unique WtE hydrogen plan would have produced greater than double the emissions of diesel buses.

Refuse vehicles look comparable. A refuse truck in Dijon sometimes runs about 25,000 km per 12 months. Diesel consumption is excessive because of cease begin operation. A mid worth of 119 L per 100 km is consultant. That leads to about 29,750 L of diesel yearly and roughly 80 tons of CO2 per truck per 12 months. Hydrogen refuse vehicles eat about 14 kg per 100 km. That equals about 3,500 kg of hydrogen yearly. Utilizing the identical WtE hydrogen emissions issue, every truck would emit about 158 tons of CO2e per 12 months. Once more, materially worse than diesel.

Gentle autos make hydrogen look even weaker. A lightweight municipal car at 15,000 km per 12 months and 0.9 kg per 100 km makes use of about 135 kg of hydrogen yearly. Even that small quantity leads to about 6 tons of CO2e per 12 months on WtE hydrogen. A diesel mild car at about 6.7 L per 100 km emits about 3 tons of CO2 per 12 months. Hydrogen doubles emissions on this case.

As an essential apart, waste to vitality electrical energy in France sometimes sits within the vary of roughly 700 to 900 gCO2e per kWh as soon as the fossil carbon in plastics and different artificial supplies is counted, whereas the French grid as a complete averages about 20 to 25 gCO2e per kWh because of its heavy reliance on nuclear and hydro. That could be a distinction of greater than an order of magnitude. Calling waste to vitality a local weather answer ignores what it truly is. It’s a waste disposal system that occurs to recuperate some vitality, not an vitality system designed to reduce emissions. A big share of the carbon launched comes from single use plastics, that are fossil derived and would have remained largely sequestered for lengthy durations if landfilled reasonably than combusted. From a local weather perspective, burning plastics to generate electrical energy takes saved fossil carbon and strikes it straight into the environment, whereas avoiding very low carbon grid electrical energy that already exists in France. That makes waste to vitality barely defensible as an vitality supply and clearly misaligned with decarbonization targets and is one other case of Dijon failing miserably to deal with local weather considerations by trying on the precise CO2e emissions of their schemes as an alternative of selling brochures from gear sellers.

The car emissions numbers ought to have meant that the unique hydrogen plan was by no means thought of. The emissions profile was essentially misaligned with local weather targets, even earlier than value or reliability had been thought of. This isn’t a marginal error. It’s an order of magnitude drawback pushed by electrical energy carbon depth and the physics of electrolysis.

Nevertheless, that’s not what occurred. They really went forward with this. They’d ordered and obtained an electrolyzer from now defunct supplier McPhy, and one refueling station of two was constructed, so far as I can inform. The worth of that contract was €4.6 million, nevertheless it’s unclear how a lot they paid and if they’re going to have the ability to get any of it again. They’d additionally ordered 27 hydrogen buses from now defunct bus producer Van Hool at €1.25 million per bus, prepaying €800,000 which they’re making an attempt to get again from the liquidator, however are in fact in an extended lineup with their fingers out.

They’ve additionally obtained 8 hydrogen refuse vehicles from two producers, E-Truck and Hyundai, at a value of €700,000 every, so one other €5.6 million dedicated. The unique plan had one other 15 mild municipal autos, however there’s no proof that they adopted via on any acquisition, so presumably haven’t misplaced any cash but.

The backup plan after the electrolyzer provider failed and with the pivot is to truck in hydrogen from exterior suppliers for the 8 refuse vehicles. In apply this might be grey hydrogen from steam methane reforming. Plant gate prices are sometimes quoted at €1 to €3 per kg, however mobility hydrogen isn’t delivered at that worth. Compression to 350 bar, tube trailer transport, station capex restoration, upkeep contracts, and low utilization dominate prices. Actual pump costs throughout France and Germany sit between €12 and €15 per kg, with some websites greater, and people are cash shedding costs for stores on the volumes they’re operating at, therefore the raft of closures.

Utilizing €13 per kg as a median delivered worth, aligned with US DOE baselines for delivered and pumped hydrogen prices, the economics shift however the emissions don’t enhance in comparison with diesel. Grey hydrogen has about 9.4 kg of direct CO2 emissions per kg on the SMR plant. Including upstream methane leakage at 1% to three% and utilizing GWP20 yields one other 3 to eight kgCO2e. Including hydrogen leakage of 5% to 10% provides about 2 to 4 kgCO2e. Delivered grey hydrogen finally ends up round 14 to 23 kgCO2e per kg. Utilizing a midpoint of about 19 kgCO2e per kg is affordable.

At that stage, a hydrogen bus emits about 88 tons of CO2e per 12 months, primarily the identical as diesel. A hydrogen refuse truck emits about 66 tons, barely higher than diesel. A lightweight car emits about 3 tons, once more matching diesel. There isn’t any significant local weather profit at fleet scale. Prices stay excessive. Upkeep complexity stays excessive.

Value comparisons clarify why some hydrogen use instances seem cheaper than diesel whereas others don’t. A bus utilizing 7.7 kg of hydrogen per 100 km at €13 per kg prices about €100 per 100 km. The identical bus utilizing 52 L of diesel per 100 km at €1.68 per L prices about €87 per 100 km. Hydrogen is costlier. A refuse truck utilizing 14 kg per 100 km prices €182 per 100 km on hydrogen, whereas diesel at 119 L per 100 km prices about €200 per 100 km. Hydrogen is cheaper on this slender case as a result of the hydrogen drive practice is extra environment friendly for cease begin driving, largely as a result of batteries and electrical motors. At €15 per kg, hydrogen turns into costlier once more.

The capital value image is the place hydrogen fails decisively. A battery electrical 12 m bus in Europe sometimes prices between $500,000 and $600,000. The hydrogen gasoline cell buses prices $1.25 million. That could be a distinction of roughly $600,000 to $700,000 per bus earlier than infrastructure. Hydrogen refueling stations value a number of million euros even at modest scale, with €4.6 million getting them, in idea, two stations and an electrolyzer. Depot charging for battery buses prices a fraction of that per car. The variance in capital value alone overwhelms any slender gasoline value benefit hydrogen would possibly declare in particular responsibility cycles.

Dijon in the end pivoted away from hydrogen buses totally. As of its most up-to-date public statements, the town doesn’t function hydrogen buses and has deserted plans to take action. It has chosen battery electrical and biodiesel hybrid buses as an alternative. For refuse vehicles, Dijon has said that it’ll proceed with hydrogen autos already delivered, however has not introduced growth. The hydrogen station infrastructure stays, however utilization might be extraordinarily low with solely 8 refuse vehicles of a deliberate complete 209 hydrogen autos of the three sorts. And as I identified primarily based on evaluation of California’s and Quebec’s refueling station information, the stations are extremely more likely to be out of service for upkeep for extra hours than they’re truly pumping hydrogen, as was the case in each of these examples. Upkeep prices might be a lot greater than these for diesel gasoline pumps or battery electrical chargers.

The alternative technique for buses is battery electrical mixed with HVO renewable diesel hybrids the place electrification is believed to not meet the responsibility necessities for vary or steep hills with present know-how, though realistically all they need to do is wait a few years and so they’ll get all of the vary they want. Alternatively, they might use lavatory customary in movement charging that’s increasing rapidly on the steepest hill sections or the lead as much as them and keep away from hybridization totally. The numbers are unambiguous. A battery electrical bus utilizing about 1.2 kWh per km consumes about 72,000 kWh per 12 months. France grid electrical energy averages about 22 gCO2e per kWh. That leads to roughly 1.6 tons of CO2e per bus per 12 months. Rounded, that’s about 2 tons. Even when charged on waste to vitality electrical energy at 790 gCO2e per kWh, the bus would emit about 57 tons per 12 months, nonetheless far beneath WtE hydrogen and beneath diesel.

HVO additionally performs effectively. Utilizing European waste and residue primarily based HVO with lifecycle depth round 18 gCO2e per MJ, a diesel bus consuming about 1.1 million MJ per 12 months emits about 20 tons of CO2e. That could be a discount of greater than 75% in comparison with fossil diesel and dramatically higher than hydrogen choices obtainable to Dijon. These in fact might be hybrid electrical, and therefore decrease than that, however a pure vitality to vitality comparability is appropriate.

At fleet scale the variations are stark. For a fleet of 16 buses, 8 refuse vehicles, and 15 mild autos, diesel emits about 2,013 tons of CO2 per 12 months. Trucked in grey hydrogen emits about 1,981 tons. WtE hydrogen at 45 kg CO2e per kg H2 would have emitted about 4,682 tons. HVO reduces emissions to about 487 tons. Battery electrical autos utilizing France grid electrical energy cut back emissions to about 40 tons. Even charging all BEVs on waste to vitality electrical energy leads to about 1,294 tons, nonetheless far beneath WtE hydrogen electrolysis.

Working prices observe an identical sample. The complete fleet prices about €1.26 million per 12 months on diesel. Hydrogen at €13 per kg prices about €1.17 million. At €15 per kg it prices about €1.35 million. HVO prices about €1.41 million. Battery electrical autos value about €260,000 per 12 months in electrical energy. The gasoline financial savings alone pay for the capital value distinction over a number of years.

Upkeep and reliability add additional weight. Hydrogen stations require compressors, excessive stress storage, leak detection, and frequent inspections. Uptime necessities for municipal fleets are excessive. When stations fail, autos are stranded. I absolutely count on that the 8 hydrogen refuse vehicles might be unable to meet their responsibility cycles, so Dijon higher not retire any diesel autos from their fleet, growing upkeep prices once more in fact. Battery charging infrastructure is easier, extra modular, and advantages from a mature provide chain. HVO requires no new infrastructure in any respect.

Dijon didn’t abandon hydrogen as a result of it lacked ambition. It deserted hydrogen as a result of the know-how is flakey, credible distributors who try it usually fail utterly as I’ve identified again and again this 12 months with my hydrogen for transportation deathwatch  and the prices had been eye watering. Emissions would have been greater than diesel and within the new case for the refuse vehicles see no profit in any respect. Gas prices had been greater than diesel and the opposite options. Capital necessities had been far greater than battery electrical. The pivot to battery electrical buses and HVO hybrids for remaining diesel fleets delivers decrease emissions, decrease prices, and decrease operational threat. The remaining hydrogen autos in refuse ship no local weather profit and impose ongoing infrastructure prices. That actuality is just not distinctive to Dijon. It’s a basic consequence of physics, economics, and actual world operations.