No Asset Is Protected—However Some Lose Much less

There’s an uncomfortable reality each investor should confront: your capital isn’t actually secure. The dual threats to long-term wealth are inflation and inventory market crashes. Preserving and rising capital requires balancing these two main dangers.

The Million Greenback Query

Think about receiving $1 million at this time, together with the duty to safeguard and develop it over the following decade. Your major aim: protect its actual worth — and ideally enhance it. As a cautious steward, how would you allocate this capital?

At first look, the reply appears simple: hold it secure, maybe in a financial savings account. However on nearer inspection, the selection is way from easy. Historical past reveals that even essentially the most secure-seeming choices can carry hidden dangers.

Capital at Threat, All the time

To grasp this, let’s flip to historical past. Utilizing US monetary information from January 1900 to December 2024, we discover that inflation averaged 3.0% per yr.[1] This implies hiding money below the mattress would have been disastrous: over a century, one greenback eroded to lower than 4 cents — a >96% loss in buying energy. Inflation will eat it slowly and silently.

Put it in a financial savings account? That provides you curiosity and in addition feels safer. Over the previous century, financial savings accounts in nations like the US and different western nations have on common saved tempo with inflation. The typical short-term saving fee, proxied by short-term US T-bills, averaged 3.0% per yr.

Averages masks important losses, nevertheless. Within the Nineteen Forties and early Nineteen Fifties, throughout a interval of economic repression, rates of interest have been held artificially low whereas costs crept increased. This was carried out to carry down the debt of the governments that have been closely indebted after World Warfare II. Savers witnessed an actual loss in buying energy of greater than 40%.

Exhibit 1 serves as a wake-up name to savers. It reveals the peak-to-bottom actual return of US T-bills. It has a most lookback window of 10 years (in any other case restoration can be even slower). This can be a image which is counterintuitive. Your financial savings should not secure when you’ve a 10-year horizon and proper for inflation.

Exhibit 1. Actual Drawdowns US T-Payments

Sources: McQuarrie (2024) and Robeco

As of 2025, a brand new period of economic repression seems to be underway. The inflation spike of 2022, mixed with rates of interest lagging behind, induced an actual loss in worth of almost 20%. Over time, this unfavourable actual fee has compounded. Savers are nonetheless down about 10% relative to 2010 ranges, and with actual rates of interest close to zero in 2025, catching up might be troublesome.

The Phantasm of Security

These episodes underscore a basic reality: even belongings that really feel secure — like financial savings accounts — can expose traders to actual, lasting losses. That brings us to a broader level: capital is all the time in danger. Whether or not you select to avoid wasting or make investments, you’re betting. Inflation and market volatility are ever-present forces.

Over longer horizons, the road between saving and investing begins to blur. What feels steady within the brief time period might fail to protect worth in the long run.

Authorities Bonds: Safer—However Protected Sufficient?

For a lot of traders, the following step past saving is authorities bonds. They sometimes provide about 1% extra yield than a financial savings account and are sometimes considered as a safer different to equities. However secure from what?

Bond traders have confronted difficult intervals since 1900. After World Warfare I, a postwar financial growth led to rising inflation, which eroded the buying energy of presidency bonds issued throughout the warfare. These so-called Liberty Bonds got here with low fastened rates of interest, which shortly grew to become unattractive within the new inflationary atmosphere. The Federal Reserve responded by elevating charges, and bond costs fell sharply, amplifying losses throughout the recession and deflation that adopted within the early Nineteen Twenties.

An analogous sample adopted World Warfare II: artificially low rates of interest and a protracted bond bear market. The expertise of the Seventies is much more acquainted. Throughout that “bond winter,” bondholders misplaced almost 50% in actual phrases. That’s not simply volatility, that’s wealth destruction. Keep in mind: it takes a 100% achieve to get well from a 50% loss.

As of 2025, traders are as soon as once more in a “bond winter,” dealing with a cumulative actual lack of round 30%, pushed by the excessive inflation of the early 2020s and the following rise in bond yields.

Exhibit 2. Actual Drawdowns US Bonds

Sources: McQuarrie (2024) and Robeco

Shares: Lengthy-Time period Achieve, Lengthy-Time period Ache

An investor is all the time both at an all-time excessive or in a drawdown. Most inventory market traders are conscious of this. Shares can actually disappoint in each the short-term and the long-run. The Nice Despair worn out almost -80% of actual wealth invested within the US inventory market. Even after a powerful restoration, it took a few years, even a long time, for many traders to completely heal. Not each dip is adopted by a swift restoration. Inflation, typically missed, can additional erode actual returns, even when inventory markets go up in nominal phrases. 

Exhibit 3 reveals that historical past is stuffed with market corrections of -20% or extra. The 21^st century alone had three drawdowns of greater than -30% in actual phrases. These enormous and frequent losses are a characteristic of inventory markets. As a result of losses are inclined to happen instantly, most traders are properly conscious of the short-term dangers.

Exhibit 3. Actual Drawdowns US Inventory Market

Sources: McQuarrie (2024) and Robeco

Over the long-term equities ship returns increased than bonds. But over multi-decade horizons, equities can nonetheless disappoint. Current analysis by Edward McQuarrie means that even within the nineteenth century, shares didn’t persistently outperform bonds, difficult the concept that equities are all the time the most secure long-term funding.[2]

Evaluating Asset Lessons

We look at actual losses — the decline in buying energy — throughout 4 key asset lessons: financial savings accounts, authorities bonds, gold, and equities. We have a look at each short-term (one-year) and long-term (10-year) danger utilizing the conditional worth in danger (CVar) — a measure of common losses within the worst intervals — also referred to as the primary decrease partial second (LPM1). This measures the anticipated loss within the worst intervals, particularly these under the inflation fee.

Financial savings accounts, whereas typically seen as secure, can quietly erode wealth over time. The typical actual loss trying again 10 years (CVar) was -17%. Over shorter intervals, the ache is much less: a typical lack of -2%, with a most one-year drawdown of -9%. This highlights a key paradox: financial savings are comparatively secure within the brief run, however are removed from safe over longer horizons.

Bonds provided considerably higher long-term efficiency, however with deeper short-term drawdowns. Their worst 10-year loss was -49%, barely worse than financial savings, although the common long-term loss was smaller at -10%. Over one-year intervals, losses ranged from -4% anticipated to -25% max.

Gold, typically considered as a secure haven, is unstable in each the brief and future. It carried out particularly properly within the Seventies and extra not too long ago outpaced bonds within the inflationary 2020s. But, gold stays dangerous. Its worst one-year and 10-year actual losses have been -44% and -68%, respectively, with excessive common drawdowns as properly, even increased than shares. Regardless of this, it may nonetheless function a helpful diversifier — significantly when mixed with regular shares.[3]

Equities ship the best long-term returns, but additionally the best drawdowns. The typical loss was -15%, and even in a single dangerous yr, the anticipated actual drawdown was -7%, with a most of -62%. Lengthy-term traders are rewarded, however provided that they will endure extreme interim declines.

Exhibit 4 —Threat and Return of Asset Lessons

Sources: McQuarrie (2024) and Robeco

These long-term numbers are not often proven — and for good motive. Most empirical analysis focuses on short-term, nominal returns, which supply extra statistical energy however assume traders solely care about month-to-month volatility. When considered by an actual, long-term lens, a really totally different image emerges. Money and bonds might seem steady within the brief run, however they carry substantial long-term danger as soon as the main focus shifts to inflation and long run potential losses.

The takeaway is easy: in the long term, all investments are dangerous. Even financial savings. What issues most will not be whether or not you face danger, however the way you handle this danger.

Exhibit 5 — Abstract Threat Ranges by Asset Class

Regular Shares Supply a Center Approach

You may’t disguise from danger. Upon getting capital, you’re uncovered — whether or not you save or make investments. The excellent news is that danger may be decreased by diversification throughout asset lessons: bonds, equities, financial savings, and even gold. This is among the few “free lunches” in finance, decreasing danger with out sacrificing return. But even in a traditional 60/40 portfolio, many of the danger nonetheless comes from equities.

There’s a higher means: scale back inventory market danger by specializing in steady corporations, generally referred to as “widow and orphan shares.” These corporations are inclined to ship constant returns, very similar to bonds, however with an essential benefit: their earnings can develop with inflation.

I’ve studied and written extensively on this funding fashion in tutorial papers and within the guide Excessive Returns from Low Threat. These low-volatility shares might lag throughout robust bull markets, however they have an inclination to carry up higher throughout downturns. Within the brief run, they definitely should not as “secure” as bonds or financial savings, however they’re much less dangerous than the broad fairness market. In the long term, they provide sturdy capital safety, significantly in environments characterised by stagflation just like the Seventies, when dangerous shares struggled. The drawdowns of regular shares are much less extreme and are typically shorter when investing within the full inventory market which additionally consists of the riskiest shares. Historic deep information for this technique exists, and on this weblog, we current outcomes ranging from 1900. [4]

Traditionally, regular shares have delivered spectacular outcomes: an actual return above 10% CAGR from 1900 to 2025.¹ In fact, this determine advantages from the distinctive historic efficiency of US equities and doesn’t account for taxes or transaction prices. Wanting forward, returns are more likely to be decrease. Multiples have expanded, driving down anticipated returns. With US debt/GDP ranges close to post-war highs (akin to 1918 and 1945) and fairness valuations close to all-time highs, forward-looking actual returns will doubtless be extra modest. (See weblog: “When the Fairness Premium Fades, Alpha Shines.”)

Nonetheless, the relative efficiency of regular shares stays compelling.

Exhibit 6: Threat and Return of Portfolios

Sources: McQuarrie (2024) and Robeco

Curiously, Exhibit 6 makes a powerful case for each diversification and regular shares. A portfolio totally allotted to regular shares reveals comparable anticipated losses as a standard 60/40 portfolio. But, being totally invested in shares means tail danger which is clear for the reason that most actual losses are increased for regular shares than for the 60/40 combine.

Due to this fact, a gradual 60/40 portfolio deserves consideration. This portfolio replaces equities with defensive equities and has decrease draw back danger, akin to the ultra-conservative everlasting portfolio which invests 25% in shares, bonds, financial savings and gold, however with meaningfully increased returns.[5]

The numbers communicate for themselves: changing (a part of) the fairness portfolio with a defensive fairness technique helps to cut back draw back danger. It’s so efficient that it gives just about comparable draw back safety because the ‘extremely conservative’ everlasting portfolio.

Nonetheless, no technique totally eliminates drawdowns. At any given time, traders face a mean drawdown of at the least –3% on a one-year foundation (–2% for financial savings), and –6% over a 10-year horizon (–9% for financial savings). There isn’t a risk-free possibility as soon as your horizon is lengthy and open-ended.

The Regular 60/40 Portfolio gives a compelling mix of inflation safety and inventory market resilience. Whereas already sturdy, it serves as a powerful start line open to considerate refinements. As an example, including 5% to 10% in gold or commodities, as within the Everlasting Portfolio, might additional scale back drawdowns throughout inflationary intervals such because the Nineteen Twenties, Seventies, and 2020s. Further enhancements —  like momentum, or worth alerts — can increase long-term returns by alpha.

The optimum combine in the end will depend on an investor’s danger urge for food and time horizon, making it adaptable to a variety of preferences. However the first-order impact is obvious: inventory market danger is the most important supply of long-term portfolio losses — and it may be decreased with an allocation to bonds. Nonetheless, one other efficient solution to decrease danger is by changing a portion of equities with regular shares. This strategy preserves long-term returns whereas additionally permitting for a decrease bond allocation, which helps scale back danger in an inflationary atmosphere.

The Most secure Transfer: Lose Much less

Even the most secure funding will lose worth sooner or later. No portfolio is resistant to actual losses. However some portfolios lose much less, and shedding much less provides traders the time and confidence to remain invested.

One key protection is diversification. Placing all of your capital in a financial savings account will increase long-term inflation danger. Placing all the pieces in equities will increase each short- and long-term drawdowns.

A gentle portfolio — one that features a substantial allocation to low-volatility, conservative equities — gives a compelling mixture of inflation safety, market stability, and long-term return. The information present that such portfolios scale back actual drawdowns considerably in comparison with each an all-equity allocation and a standard 60/40 combine, with out sacrificing long-term efficiency.

Now think about once more being entrusted with $1 million to protect and develop over the following decade. You now acknowledge that it’s not a simple activity however a balancing act. As a substitute of 100% saving, historical past suggests the perfect safety comes from diversified investing, together with a significant allocation to regular shares.

Key Takeaways

• Over lengthy horizons, no asset is actually secure — not even money.
• Historic information present regular shares mix resilience with engaging returns.
• Diversifying throughout higher — not simply extra — belongings reduces drawdowns.

Pim van Vliet, PhD, is the writer of Excessive Returns from Low Threat: A Outstanding Inventory Market Paradox, with Jan de Koning.

Hyperlink to analysis papers by Pim van Vliet.

References

Baltussen, G., Swinkels, L., & van Vliet, P. (2023a). “Investing in deflation, inflation, and stagflation regimes,” Monetary Analysts Journal, 79(3), 5–32.

Baltussen, G., van Vliet, B., & Van Vliet, P. (2023b). The cross-section of inventory returns earlier than CRSP. Obtainable at SSRN 3969743.

McQuarrie, E. F. (2024a). Shares for the long term? Generally sure, generally no. Monetary Analysts Journal, 80(1), 12-28.

McQuarrie, E.F. (2024b) Introducing a New Month-to-month Sequence of US Authorities Bond Returns 1793–2023. Working Paper 4899187, SSRN

van Vliet, Pim, and Harald Lohre. “The Golden Rule of Investing.” The Journal of Various Investments (2023).

CFA Institute Enterprising Investor. Could 2025. When the Fairness Premium Fades, Alpha Shines. Hyperlink

[1] We use 30-day T-bills (90-day previous to 1926) as proxy for saving accounts, Authorities Bonds, Inventory Market and Conservative Shares. Sources are from MacQuarrie and Robeco.

[2] See 2024 research by Edward McQuarrie, E. F. (2024). Shares for the long term? Generally sure, generally no. Monetary Analysts Journal

[3] See: The Golden Rule of Investing by Pim van Vliet, Harald Lohre :: SSRN. Whereas traders can maintain bodily bullion, gold ETFs provide a extra sensible answer.

[4] The Conservative Formulation information are used and from 1929 may be downloaded at paradoxinvesting.com/information. Information going again to 1900 is described within the 2023 research ‘The cross-section of inventory returns earlier than CRSP.”

[5] Popularized by Harry Browne in Fail-Protected Investing: Lifelong Monetary Safety, 1981. The Everlasting Portfolio allocates equally to shares, bonds, money, and gold to hedge towards inflation, deflation, recession, and market danger.