Tesla Gross sales Down 13% (... or 18%), But Shareholders Have Religion

Final Up to date on: third July 2025, 02:36 pm

Tesla is in a pickle. It’s unclear the place it goes from right here within the the rest of the yr, and years to come back. However what does appear clear now’s that issues haven’t been getting into the suitable route for the corporate, and there’s no “it’s no massive deal” rationalization for that. It’s additionally clear that shareholders don’t appear to care. Presumably, that’s as a result of they suppose robotaxis and robots are going to unravel all of Tesla’s issues. In any other case, in the event that they suppose Tesla gross sales are going to bounce again and not using a robotaxi breakthrough, I’m unsure the place the logic is for that, however I’ll attempt to tease out some concepts on this article.

The overview of the information, although, is that Tesla gross sales have been down 13% in Q2 2025 in comparison with Q2 2024, and down 18% in Q2 2025 in comparison with Q2 2023, but Tesla’s inventory worth jumped from $300 to $316 yesterday within the preliminary response to the information.

Let’s bounce into the charts and graphs for a better take a look at what’s been taking place. (Interactive variations of the charts are on the backside of the article.)

Taking a look at total quarterly gross sales throughout time, Tesla’s Q2 (and Q1) gross sales are a substantial step down from Q2 (and Q1) gross sales final yr. Going again to Tesla’s file gross sales yr of 2023, this yr’s Q2 (and Q1) gross sales are additionally down significantly. What’s particularly clear, although, is that Tesla goes to want a large bounce again in gross sales within the third and 4th quarter with a purpose to not have a disastrous yr relative to 2023 and 2024. It might get a lift in that timeframe within the US from the Republican price range invoice that’s about to cross, as a result of it’s going to part out EV tax credit for shoppers, and folks will thus rush to purchase EVs, together with Teslas, earlier than the flip of the yr. Long term, although, that can solely harm Tesla gross sales in 2026…. Will it disguise a deeper drawback for Tesla? In all probability.

Taking a look at this graph displaying official Tesla supply figures by mannequin teams (since Tesla doesn’t escape gross sales of particular person fashions like different auto corporations and teams them collectively in an odd means), there’s one apparent constructive level from the corporate. Tesla Mannequin Y & Mannequin 3 gross sales bounced again a bit from Q1, when Mannequin Y manufacturing traces have been shut down within the US, Germany, and China concurrently to vary from manufacturing of the unique Mannequin Y to manufacturing of the brand new, upgraded Mannequin Y.

The draw back is that these manufacturing facility pauses have been in January, and Mannequin Y manufacturing ought to have been at full quantity in Q2. Nonetheless, Q2 gross sales have been means under Q2 2024 gross sales (373,728 vs. 422,405), and so they have been barely higher than Q1 2024 gross sales (369,783), Tesla’s worst quarter for these key fashions final yr. The truth that Mannequin Y & Mannequin 3 gross sales have been almost 50,000 models decrease in Q2 2025 than Q2 2024 is a worrying signal for the corporate, and one would suppose it needs to be for Tesla [NASDAQ:TSLA] shareholders.

Additional down the graph, gross sales of the Mannequin S + Mannequin X + Cybertruck are so low that they appear insignificant, and so they have additionally declined. The issue right here is that the Cybertruck was alleged to be an enormous increase of at the least semi-high-volume gross sales, and it’s evident now that these should not coming. Regardless of numerous incentives and far hype, not many individuals are shopping for the Cybertruck. The truth is, Cybertruck or not, the final time this group of mannequin gross sales (non-Mannequin 3 and non-Mannequin Y gross sales) was decrease than Q2’s determine was means again in Q3 2021! That’s a number of quarters earlier than the Cybertruck even hit the market.

If we attempt to escape model-specific gross sales, particularly primarily based on knowledge collected from some key markets, properly, there’s not a lot so as to add. The one factor that actually stands out to me is how little of a gross sales bounce the brand new Mannequin Y offered after that horrible Q1. It’s not even near its peak volumes.

Might the brand new Mannequin Y manufacturing ramp-up have bled into Q2? That appears extremely unlikely, as there was no point out of that when Elon Musk talked in regards to the subject on the final Tesla convention name for traders. There’s no point out I’ve seen on any such drawback, and the press launch asserting Q2 gross sales didn’t make any excuses, even reaching ones, like it might usually do in such a case to assuage investor considerations.

In brief, there’s a severe query whether or not Tesla can return to its gross sales peak of 2023, and there are clear causes (which we’ve mentioned at size) as to why they may proceed to stagnate and even decline. It’s undoubtedly clear that the corporate is way from its earlier purpose of fifty% progress a yr within the 2020s. That’s not taking place. The one means it occurs on common throughout the last decade is with a loopy miracle after which hypergrowth.

It appears that evidently the hopes shareholders are holding onto are some combination of the next:

Mannequin Y gross sales bouncing again far more so in coming quarters. (Appears unlikely.)
Cybertruck prices coming down and gross sales leaping. (Appears impossible.)
A brand new, lower-cost Tesla mannequin coming to market and having monumental demand, with out cannibalizing Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y gross sales. (Once more, appears unlikely, however maybe extra seemingly than the 2 prospects above?)
Tesla robotaxi service increasing quickly and massively juicing demand for Tesla’s automobiles. (Once more, this appears impossible to me, however I feel it’s what shareholders are most eager for, and even anticipate.)
Tesla robots coming to market, having large demand, jacking up Tesla’s income and income. (Want I touch upon this one?)

I’m having a tough time seeing a great, strong case for progress for Tesla at this second. On the identical time, the corporate’s operational prices have been going up significantly as a result of rising computing prices related to its AI/FSD work. We’ll have to attend to see what the Q2 financials report and name have in retailer, and what sort of spin is placed on issues on this clearly hassle time. Can Elon Musk pull a rabbit out of the hat? And if he does, is it going to be actual magic or an phantasm of magic? Keep tuned.

Within the meantime, under are additionally charts of Tesla’s cumulative gross sales and a few model-specific cumulative gross sales, after which there are the interactive variations of a number of of the charts above in addition to one further chart.