Neil Thomas from Llanelli voted Labour on the UK Normal Election in 2024. “By no means once more,” he mentioned.
He is one of many many converts to Reform UK who helped the social gathering win a seat in Llanelli simply over a fortnight in the past and achieve its first Carmarthenshire councillor.
The 62-year-old had a couple of gripes to say. He mentioned he did not anticipate to obtain winter gas allowance when he was eligible in a couple of years’ time. Labour simply this week did a u-turn on the fee, making hundreds of thousands extra folks on decrease incomes eligible after beforehand proscribing it to pensioners on sure advantages.
He additionally felt aggrieved that he was turned down for a profit he had been receiving known as the private independence fee following a medical evaluation. Fortunately for him, he mentioned his cousin appealed on his behalf and it was reinstated.
Nevertheless it looks as if it is Reform UK chief Nigel Farage that is made the distinction for him.
“I voted Labour on the final basic election and at all times voted Labour domestically – by no means once more,” mentioned Mr Thomas. “Subsequent election I might be voting for Reform.”
He mentioned he appreciated what he’d seen of Reform UK and Nigel Farage on tv. “He is straight-talking. He speaks his thoughts,” he mentioned. “He could be a very good Prime Minister. The one we have now, we do not know what the hell he is doing.”
Would the Reform UK chief and MP for Clacton have Wales’ pursuits at coronary heart, we requested? “We have to attend and see,” mentioned Mr Thomas. For our free day by day briefing on the most important points going through the nation, signal as much as the Wales Issues publication right here
Two years in the past Reform was bumping alongside the underside of the UK polls, buying and selling blows with the Greens to be one of many least in style nationwide political events within the nation.
Labour was at its zenith, monitoring within the mid 40 per cents with the Tories stumbling alongside within the mid-20s.
Then, in direction of the tip of 2023, one thing modified. Reform started choosing up help, hovering above the Greens and Lib Dems and slowly consuming into the Tories’ lack of recognition relative to Labour.
There have been no nice good points for Reform on the 2024 Normal Election which was gained decisively by Labour, with Mr Farage’s social gathering choosing up 5 seats, however the social gathering gained sweeping good points on the native elections in England earlier this yr, taking 677 of the 1,600 seats and is now main within the polls, with Politico’s most up-to-date ballot of polls placing Reform on 30%, Labour on 23% and the Conservatives on 17%
The Senedd elections happen on Might 7, 2026, the following huge electoral check for all political events in Wales.
A ballot in Might this yr instructed Labour might lose management of the Welsh Authorities and drop to 3rd, with Plaid Cymru taking probably the most seats, adopted by Reform in third.
Within the meantime, the one clue we get as to what is perhaps taking place on the bottom in Wales is by-elections.
Simply over a fortnight in the past Reform UK’s Michelle Beer gained a vacant Lliedi seat by a stretch, defeating Welsh Labour in what has been strong Labour territory going by the 2022, 2017 and 2012 council elections. She is Reform UK’s first Carmarthenshire councillor.
Eventually summer time’s basic election Labour incumbent Nia Griffith held onto the Llanelli seat with 31.3% of the vote however Reform UK’s Gareth Beer – Michelle’s husband – wasn’t one million miles away in second place with a 27.6% share. Reform UK, it appears, aren’t going anyplace.
When WalesOnline went to Lliedi to talk to voters, we caught up with Neil Thomas, talked about earlier, and bellwether voter Stella Bartlett, who voted for Labour’s Ms Griffith final July and for Reform UK’s Mrs Beer on Might 29.
Requested in regards to the swap, she mentioned: “It was due to what’s taking place with Labour – they are saying one factor and do one other. It was the way in which they took off cash for winter gas, and now they will put it again, however not all of it.
“It is the cuts and placing Nationwide Insurance coverage up for the employees which they should not be doing. My granddaughter is a care employee and does quite a lot of extra time. On the subject of her pay, the tax is unbelievable.”
The 76-year-old added: “I met the Reform candidate (Mrs Beer) when she got here to my door, and he or she was pretty. I additionally simply occur to love Nigel Farage and what he’s for. He appears all the way down to earth, no airs and graces, like a traditional particular person.”
Final autumn Chancellor Rachel Reeves introduced an increase within the stage of Nationwide Insurance coverage contributions paid by employers fairly than workers to assist plug what Labour claimed was a £22 billion black gap left by the earlier Conservative Authorities. It got here into impact in April this yr, as did inflation-busting will increase within the nationwide dwelling wage and minimal wage.
Nevertheless, extra individuals are slipping into the revenue tax bracket due to a freeze on the quantity you’ll be able to earn – often known as the private allowance – earlier than the 20% primary price applies.
All political selections are trade-offs and the winter gas hokey cokey appears to have left its mark on some voters.
Craig Morgan, of Llanelli, voted for Reform UK final July after beforehand voting Conservative. He mentioned he did not really feel the 2 historically strongest events have been “doing something good” for folks.
“They’re attempting to do up Llanelli but it surely’s taking years,” mentioned the 43-year-old. “I felt like a change was wanted.” He mentioned folks wanted higher entry to housing.
Mr Morgan added: “Nigel Farage is a personality. He says issues how they’re, however thank God he isn’t like Donald Trump, but.”
Requested if he’d had any reservations about voting for Reform UK, he did not say no however added that he did not wish to get right into a dialogue about immigration. Would he vote for Reform UK at subsequent yr’s Senedd elections? “I’ll see on the time,” he mentioned.
Richard Thomas, 73, is a Reform UK convert and mentioned ranges of authorized and unlawful immigration involved him. Nevertheless he mentioned he did not blame folks for coming to the UK to hunt work within the well being and care sectors.
“If we did not have them our hospitals could be knackered,” he mentioned. “There are additionally quite a lot of them at my mom’s care dwelling – they’re higher than our personal folks.”
A few years in the past Mr Thomas, of Pontyates, a couple of miles north-west of Llanelli, labored on the close by Cynheidre colliery.
He appreciated what he heard from the Reform UK chief when he visited Port Talbot on June 9, corresponding to bringing blast furnaces again to the steelworks and permitting coal to be mined to energy them.
“He spoke effectively at Port Talbot,” mentioned Mr Thomas, who beforehand tended to vote for Plaid Cymru. “What’s improper with burning coal? It is the most effective warmth we ever had in our home.”
Was he frightened that Reform UK may over-promise and, if it have been to carry sway within the Senedd or Home of Commons at some point, under-deliver? “It relies on how a lot cash there may be within the kitty then,” he replied.
However Lliedi shouldn’t be the one neighborhood in Wales to show to Nigel Farage’s social gathering.
The drive by the village of Cefn Cribwr all the way down to Kenfig Hill and Pyle is a roughly two mile stretch of highway that reveals Wales at its most interesting on a transparent day.
With scenic views of Bridgend county borough to the south, and a snap-shot of the coast to the west, with Port Talbot steelworks framed between rows of homes within the distance, it’s one that nearly appears to encapsulate this a part of the world at a look.
Nevertheless, whereas these views have turn into a soothing and constant sight to many within the Bridgend communities through the years, in current months the political outlook for the realm has turn into barely much less clear.
This was evident at a council by-election held in Might, 2025, which noticed a seat within the ward of Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr gained by the authority’s first Reform UK councillor, Owain Clatworthy.
He took his seat after edging out the second positioned Labour candidate Gary Chappell by solely 30 votes, to hitch two sitting Labour members for the area- present deputy chief, Cllr Jane Gebbie, and Mayor for Bridgend, Cllr Huw David.
It got here simply weeks earlier than the chief of Reform UK, Nigel Farage, visited the close by city of Port Talbot to kick-start the social gathering’s Senedd election marketing campaign, claiming they anticipated to not solely win seats, however to additionally win sufficient to control Wales.
Chatting with locals within the ward of Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr, identified traditionally as a Labour space, some really feel a way of hysteria over potential modifications to the political status-quo, although for others they really feel this small a part of Bridgend has despatched out an enormous message within the construct as much as 2026.
Nigel Harris lives within the village of Kenfig Hill and mentioned that when it got here to politics, many individuals have been pissed off with what they thought-about to be an absence of motion within the space, with extra needing to be accomplished to assist its communities.
He mentioned: “The issue with quite a lot of politicians is that they promise you every little thing, then when it truly comes all the way down to it they do not do something in any respect.
“You solely must look outdoors on the grass in Kenfig Hill. It hasn’t been reduce for ages and it is coming to the purpose the place its as much as your knees in some locations.
“The roads are actually dangerous with pot holes, there is a basic lack of public bathrooms, and lots of people are beginning to get aggravated as a result of, regardless of giving extra, we appear to be going backwards.
“The native excessive streets are dying in entrance of us, and every little thing you hear is simply detrimental, so it would not shock me to listen to that individuals are searching for one thing totally different.”
Brian Smith mentioned he felt that the newest by-election had additionally mirrored frustrations with nationwide issues, such because the cost-of-living disaster and the closure of the blast furnaces on the close by Port Talbot steelworks web site.
He mentioned: “Individuals need change and I believe there’s going to be an enormous shock with how the votes go subsequent yr on the Senedd, with some shifting away from the extra conventional Labour or Conservative votes that we have seen up to now.
“After all, a few of that might be due to native issues, however wider points just like the winter gas allowance and the closure of the blast furnaces in Port Talbot may even play an enormous half in locations like this.
“The steelworks is an enormous one for me, because it at all times employed lots of people in and round this space and so they all noticed the choice to avoid wasting the Scunthorpe web site whereas letting this one go.”
One resident who didn’t want to be named mentioned different nationwide points like securing the way forward for the NHS and tackling unlawful immigration have been additionally components that might affect voters, stating: “Someone’s obtained to cease all these boats coming in. The Nationwide Well being Service is on its knees in the mean time and one thing has obtained to be accomplished.”
For Ahmed Tezgel nonetheless, he felt that politicians throughout all events wanted to do extra to interact with residents and reside as much as guarantees, including: “I do not thoughts any social gathering simply so long as they’re going to assist the neighborhood.”
Talking after his shock election win in Might, 2025, which made him solely the second Reform Councillor in Wales on the time, Cllr Owain Clatworthy, 20, mentioned: “I’m extremely humbled and it’s a real honour to have been elected.
“I ran a marketing campaign based mostly on folks as a result of many are fed up of being ignored and wish to see change. The work begins now to construct a greater future for everybody within the ward and I’ll get up for the neighborhood and put folks first.”
His work begins in that ward in a single a part of Wales, however the work of Reform and different events is already effectively underway to persuade folks in wards and constituencies throughout the nation to vote for them on the Senedd election subsequent yr.
The way forward for Wales is at stake.
