The Federal Reserve’s price cuts in 2024 reignited a debate acquainted to traders: do easing cycles prolong expansions or sign looming recession? With inflation nonetheless a risk, the Fed’s subsequent transfer carries actual penalties for portfolios. Historical past affords a information. Previous cycles reveal how financial shifts have influenced recessions, bear markets, and funding kinds management, classes traders can use as they navigate in the present day’s late-cycle surroundings.
Echoing Milton Friedman’s statement relating to the “lengthy and variable lags” of financial coverage, this submit examines historic Fed price cycles to evaluate their relationship throughout quite a lot of market dynamics.
By analyzing previous knowledge, we purpose to supply insights into how financial coverage actions have traditionally influenced yield curves, type management, and financial outcomes — insights that may assist traders interpret in the present day’s cycle.
KEY OBSERVATIONS
Charge Lower Cycles
- Two out of 10 earlier price minimize cycles prevented a recession, with the 2024 minimize cycle marking the threerd out of 11, if the recession is prevented within the present cycle.
- Fairness type efficiency has been extraordinarily blended after cuts throughout each recessionary and non-recessionary durations.
Charge Hike Cycles
- Throughout 12 price hike cycles since 1965, we now have skilled 10 yield curve inversions and eight recessions, if the present inversion continues to keep away from a recession.
- The one hike cycle that included an inversion however prevented a recession was 1966, (just like present interval) coincided with a ~3% deficit/GDP fiscal enlargement, just like the ~3% fiscal enlargement over the previous 4 years.
Yield Curve Inversions
- The vary of time of a yield curve inversion to market peak was two to fifteen months for the eight out of 9 yield curve inversions that preceded a recession. Presently, we sit at 35 months.
- One earlier yield curve inversion (1966) prevented a recession, and we noticed development, excessive beta, and high quality kinds main efficiency because the curve normalized, like in the present day.
Determine 1 presents fairness market efficiency throughout three distinct durations following the Fed’s preliminary price minimize: months one to12, 13 to 24, and 25 to 36. Whereas returns are typically broadly optimistic, the dearth of a constant sample throughout cycles signifies that outcomes are largely influenced by the precise macroeconomic surroundings during which every easing cycle happens.
Determine 1: High 1000 Returns After Charge Cuts.
Disclosures: Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes. All of the returns within the chart above are in reference to unmanaged, hypothetical safety groupings created solely for analytical functions. Please see appendix for definitions and citations.
Determine 2 illustrates the historic relationship between Fed rate-cutting cycles, recessions, and bear markets. Evaluation of 12 distinct cycles reveals that in 10 cases, the Fed initiated price cuts solely after fairness markets had already peaked, suggesting a lag in coverage responsiveness. Moreover, recessions have sometimes been recognized by the Nationwide Bureau of Financial Analysis (NBER) with a delay of 4 to 21 months following their precise onset. Notably, for the reason that extremely unstable financial surroundings of the Nineteen Seventies, the Fed has extra steadily begun price cuts previous to the formal recognition of a recession.
Determine 2: Federal Reserve Charge Lower Cycles.
Disclosures: Please see appendix for definitions and citations.
Determine 3 exhibits the efficiency of assorted funding kinds following the initiation of Fed rate-cutting cycles. The info revealed a blended sample of returns, underscoring the idiosyncratic nature of every cycle. One believable clarification for this variability is that financial easing doesn’t constantly align with fairness market cycles, typically leading to divergent funding type conduct. There simply doesn’t appear to be a connection between rate-cut cycles, recessions, and market threat conduct, making type persistence unattainable to anticipate.
Determine 3: Fashion Extra Returns 1-Yr After First Charge Lower.
Disclosures: Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes. All of the returns within the chart above are in reference to unmanaged, hypothetical safety groupings created solely for analytical functions. These are hypothetical kinds primarily based on describing traits. Please see appendix for definitions and citations. Extra Return is Annualized Return over the High 1000 Portfolio.
Since 1965, there have been 12 distinct rate-hiking cycles, of which eight culminated in recessions, 10 have been preceded by yield-curve inversions, and 9 coincided with bear markets (Determine 4). The median period of those cycles is 18 months, starting from 12 to 39 months, whereas the median enhance within the federal funds price was 3.75%, with a spread between 1.75% and 13%. The median time from the beginning of a climbing cycle to the market peak previous a recession was 22 months, with a spread of 4 to 51 months.
Determine 4: Federal Reserve Charge Hike Cycles.
Disclosures: Please see appendix for definitions and citations.
Within the majority of rate-hiking cycles, the Fed continued to tighten financial coverage even after fairness markets had reached their peak. This sample reinforces the long-held adage that bull markets aren’t ended by previous age, however by the actions of the Fed. Whereas this aggressive stance typically contributes to financial contraction, there are cases the place the Fed has tried to preemptively mitigate recessionary pressures.
In 5 of the eight recessions noticed since 1965, the Fed started chopping rates of interest previous to the official onset of financial contraction, indicating a proactive coverage shift aimed toward cushioning the financial system. Nevertheless, as these 5 episodes illustrate, preemptive price cuts don’t all the time reach averting recessions, underscoring the restrictions of financial coverage as soon as broader financial momentum begins to deteriorate.
The efficiency of funding kinds within the 12 months following the tip of rate-hiking cycles has been blended, reflecting the cycle-specific nature of financial coverage and market dynamics. This variability probably stems from financial cycles not constantly aligning with fairness market cycles. Within the Nineteen Seventies, for instance, the Fed typically transitioned instantly from climbing to chopping charges, making post-hike and post-cut return profiles successfully indistinguishable.
One historic sample that continues is that prime beta shares are sometimes among the many finest or worst performers and worth and high quality shares are sometimes higher than common and barely amongst the worst. This statement can also be persistent following the tip of climbing cycles.
Determine 5: Fashion Extra Returns 1 Yr After Final Charge Hike.
Disclosures: Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes. All of the returns within the chart above are in reference to unmanaged, hypothetical safety groupings created solely for analytical functions. These are hypothetical kinds primarily based on describing traits. Please see appendix for definitions and citations. Extra Return is Annualized Return over the High 1000 Portfolio.
Determine 6: Yield Curve Inversions.
Disclosures: Please see appendix for definitions and citations.
Throughout the 12 distinct financial tightening cycles, 10 have been accompanied by yield curve inversions. Of those 10 inversions, eight have been adopted by recessions, underscoring the predictive energy of the yield curve as a number one financial indicator (Determine 5).
Yield curve inversions have traditionally coincided with each recessions and bear markets. The connection between inversion and market peak various considerably, starting from 12 months previous to the inversion to fifteen months after. This variability highlights the complexity of market responses to financial coverage shifts.
Two rate-hiking cycles — 1984 and 1995 — stand out as exceptions, having achieved “tender landings” with out both a yield curve inversion or a subsequent recession. Conversely, the 1966 and 2022 cycles skilled yield curve inversions however prevented recessions.
The 1966 cycle is mentioned intimately in our submit, Bear Market Playbook: Decoding Recession Threat, Valuation Influence, and Fashion Management, the place we attribute the absence of recession to extremely stimulative fiscal coverage. Nevertheless, this coverage backdrop finally contributed to the eventual recession and bear market of 1968.
Parallels could be drawn between the fiscal surroundings of the mid-Nineteen Sixties and the present financial panorama. In each durations, elevated deficit spending supported financial exercise. The inversion that started in 2022 ranks because the longest and third most extreme by way of period and depth. Regardless of these hostile indicators, the US financial system and labor market have demonstrated exceptional resilience.
Per our two prior situations, the efficiency of funding kinds within the 12 months following a yield curve inversion (Determine 7), has exhibited appreciable dispersion, underscoring the cycle-dependent nature of financial coverage and market conduct. Yield curve inversions could sign that the market is coming into the later phases of the financial cycle. In such environments, it isn’t stunning to watch outperformance from high quality and development components, which traditionally have a tendency to guide throughout late-cycle phases because of their resilient earnings.
Determine 7: Fashion Extra Returns 1-Yr After Yield Curve Inversion.
Disclosures: Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes. All of the returns within the chart above are in reference to unmanaged, hypothetical safety groupings created solely for analytical functions. These are hypothetical kinds primarily based on describing traits. Please see appendix for definitions and citations. Extra Return is Annualized Return over the High 1000 Portfolio.
The Fed’s historic rate of interest cycles reveal a constant sample of delayed coverage responses relative to market and financial turning factors, underscoring the “lengthy and variable lags” inherent in financial coverage. Yield curve inversions have confirmed to be a dependable recession indicator, although their timing and market influence stay variable, complicating predictive efforts.
For traders, the file exhibits that no single coverage shift affords a transparent playbook. Charge cuts have produced extremely inconsistent type outcomes, underscoring the necessity to look past coverage bulletins to the financial backdrop. Throughout climbing cycles, worth and high quality exposures have traditionally supplied steadier efficiency, whereas excessive beta has been a supply of each outsized good points and sharp losses. After inversions, development and high quality have typically led, with excessive beta once more including upside potential however at increased threat.
The load of historical past suggests traders ought to view the present easing cycle via a late-cycle lens. In 1966, the financial system prevented recession as fiscal enlargement prolonged development, and comparable circumstances exist in the present day. If that parallel holds, portfolios tilted towards kinds equivalent to high quality and development could proceed to their outperformance, with normal higher-beta publicity being favored throughout kinds.
On the identical time, inflation stays the swing issue: a renewed rise might power the Fed again to tightening, traditionally creating difficult market environments. For traders, the crucial is to place for resilience whereas staying prepared to regulate if coverage pivots once more.
Appendix & Citations
Figures 2, 4 and 6: Federal Reserve Cycles Information Tables
- S&P 500 Index Ranges. FactSet, 2025.
- Blinder, Alan. 2023. “Landings, Delicate and Laborious: The Federal Reserve, 1965-2022.” Journal of Financial Views — Quantity 37, Number one — Winter 2023 — pages 101–120
- Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York. The Yield Curve as a Main Indicator. https://www.newyorkfed.org/analysis/capital_markets/ycfaq.html.
- Federal Reserve Board. Open Market Operations. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 18 Dec. 2024. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
- Federal Reserve Board. Modifications within the Supposed Federal Funds Charge, 1971–1992. 29 Aug. 2019. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://www.federalreserve.gov/foia/recordsdata/20190829-changes-intended-federal-funds-rate.pdf
- Nationwide Bureau of Financial Analysis. US Enterprise Cycle Expansions and Contractions. https://www.nber.org/analysis/knowledge/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions.
- U.S. Bureau of Financial Evaluation, Actual Gross Home Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/collection/GDPC1, Might 1, 2025.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Efficient Charge [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/collection/FEDFUNDS, September 5, 2025.
Figures 1, 3, 5 and seven: Efficiency Charts
- Information Supply: Compustat
- Calculation: Hartford Fairness Modeling Platform
Fashion and Time Interval Definitions:
- Worth: US prime 1000 shares prime 30% primarily based on composite worth as outlined by a number of equally weighted valuation metrics to reach at an aggregated valuation metric. Valuation metrics embody: P/E, EBITDA/EV, working money movement/EV, income/EV, and B/P Yield (used solely in financials and actual property as a alternative to EBITDA/EV), then cap weighted.
- Low Volatility: US High 1000 Shares prime 30% primarily based on a Composite Volatility rating outlined by a number of equality weighted volatility metrics to reach at an aggregated volatility metric. Volatility metrics embody three 12 months weekly beta and six-month each day commonplace deviation, then cap weighted.
- Excessive Volatility: US prime 1000 shares backside 30% primarily based on a composite volatility rating outlined by a number of equality weighted volatility metrics to reach at an aggregated volatility metric. Volatility metrics embody three 12 months weekly beta and six-month each day commonplace deviation, then cap weighted.
- Dividend: US prime 1000 shares prime 30% primarily based on trailing 12-month dividend per share divided by present share worth, then cap weighted.
- High quality: US prime 1000 shares prime 30% primarily based on gross income to property, then cap weighted.
- Progress: US prime 1000 shares prime 30% primarily based on 5 years gross sales development, then cap weighted.
- SMID: US mid-sized and small-cap shares representing the smallest 15% and 13% of shares respectively, excluding the very smallest 2% that are categorized as microcap, then cap weighted.
- Mega/Massive: US mega and enormous market cap shares with mega cap representing the most important 40% and enormous cap representing the subsequent largest 30% of the universe, then cap weighted.
- High 1000: US High 1000 shares, cap weighted.
- Yield Curve Inversions are outlined by the 10-year Treasury yield minus the three-month Treasury yield.
